Ukraine: Wintry precipitation forecast across much of the country through at least Feb. 9 /update 20

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Wintry precipitation is forecast across much of Ukraine through at least Feb. 9. A weather system moving over the country from the northwest will bring a mixture of light snow, sleet, and rain to most regions Feb. 2-3. Further snowfall is expected across much of the country Feb. 4-6, although precipitation may fall as sleet or rain in southern regions. Drier conditions are expected in northern, central, and eastern areas from Feb. 7, with snowfall lingering in western and southern regions. Temperatures are expected to drop over the coming days due to the arrival of cold air from the north. Temperatures could drop as low as -10 C (14 F) at night from Feb. 5 and will be a few degrees below zero during the day in most areas. Fog is possible in places, especially at night and early morning. Hazardous travel conditions due to slippery roads and reduced visibility caused by blowing snow.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern regions due to rising river levels. As of Feb. 2, orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Upper Dnieper River and Desna River basins in Chernihiv Oblast through at least Feb. 6. Orange avalanche warnings have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in western Ivano-Frankivsk and eastern Zakarpattia oblasts Feb. 2-3. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 2-3 and snowfall Feb. 4-6. Laregly dry and partly cloudy Feb. 7-8. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 4 C (25 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to -1 C (18 to 30 F).

• Luhansk: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 2-4 and snowfall Feb. 5-6. Laregly dry and partly cloudy Feb. 7-8. Maximum daytime temperatures -5 to 4 C (23 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to -1 C (18-34 F).

• Donetsk: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 2-4 and snowfall Feb. 5-6. Laregly dry and partly cloudy Feb. 7-8. Maximum daytime temperatures -5 to 4 C (23 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to -1 C (18 to 30 F).

• Mariupol: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 2-4 and snowfall Feb. 5-6. Laregly dry and partly cloudy Feb. 7-8. Maximum daytime temperatures -2 to 3 C (28 to 37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3 to 2 C (27 to 36 F).

• Kherson: Cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 2. Rainfall forecast Feb. 3 and mixed wintry precipitation Feb. 4-5. Snowfall forecast Feb. 6-7 and largely dry and cloudy Feb. 8. Maximum daytime temperatures -3 to 6 C (27 to 43 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -6 to 0 C (21 to 32 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 2. Rainfall forecast Feb. 3 and mixed wintry precipitation Feb. 4-5. Snowfall forecast Feb. 6-7 and largely dry and cloudy Feb. 8. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 5 C (25 to 41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -7 to 0 C (19 to 32 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 2-5. Laregly dry and partly cloudy Feb. 6-5. Snowfall forecast Feb. 8. Maximum daytime temperatures -6 to 1 C (21 to 34 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -12 to -2 C (10 to 28 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 2-5. Laregly dry and partly cloudy Feb. 6-7. Snowfall forecast Feb. 8. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 2 C (25 to 36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -11 to -3 C (12 to 27 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Feb. 2 and Feb. 5-8. Light rainfall forecast Feb. 3-4. Maximum daytime temperatures -3 to 4 C (27 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to -1 C (18 to 30 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Feb. 2, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for parts of Crimea. Yellow fog warnings have been issued for Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray and parts of Crimea. Yellow ice, sleet, and freezing rain warnings have been issued for Belgorod, Bryansk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts, Krasnodar Kray, and parts of Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and airport deicing operations.

Context

Winter is likely to have an impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing at times, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations. As Spring begins to approach and temperatures ease, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive maneuvers. Offensives in early Spring could be hampered by flooding and boggy ground caused by precipitation and thawing snow and ice.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring