Ukraine: Largely dry conditions and predominatly mild temperatures forecast across much of the country through at least March 23 /update 26

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Largely dry conditions with fluctuating temperatures are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least March 23. Mixed wintry precipitation is expected in western regions on March 16, and light rainfall and sleet are expected in parts of northern, central, and eastern Ukraine overnight March 16-March 17. Generally, drier conditions prevail across much of the country through March 20; however, some light rainfall is expected in eastern regions March 19 and western regions March 20. More widespread showers are expected March 21, and dry but foggy conditions March 22. Temperatures are expected to drop a few degrees in western regions from March 16, northern and central regions from March 17, and eastern regions from March 18. Temperatures are then forecast to rise again across much of the country from March 19 and could reach as high as 17 C (63 F) in western and central regions March 21-22.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern and western regions due to fluctuating river levels caused by recent precipitation and snow melt. As of March 16, yellow hydrological warnings (level 2 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Desna River basin in Chernihiv Oblast and the Pripyat River basin in parts of northern Khemelnytski, northeastern Lviv, Rivne, northern Ternopil, Volyn, and western and northern Zhytomyr oblasts. Orange avalanche warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in southern and western Ivano-Frankivsk and eastern and northern Zakarpattia oblasts, as well as green warnings in parts of far western Chernivtsi and southern Lviv oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Light showers forecast March 16-17, 19, and 21. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 18, 20, and 22. Maximum daytime temperatures 6-14 C (43-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-5 C (32-41 F).

• Luhansk: Light showers forecast March 17 and 19. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 16, 18, and 20-22. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-14 C (41-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-6 C (34-43 F).

• Donetsk: Light showers forecast March 16-17, and 19. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 18, and 20-22. Maximum daytime temperatures 6-13 C (43-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-7 C (34-45 F).

• Mariupol: Light showers forecast March 16-17, and 19. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 18, and 20-22. Maximum daytime temperatures 7-12 C (45-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-9 C (41-48 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 16-17, 19-20, and 22. Light rainfall forecast March 18 and 21. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-16 C (50-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-7 C (36-45 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Light rainfall forecast March 16. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 17-22. Maximum daytime temperatures 8-15 C (46-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-6 C (34-43 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Showers forecast March 16, 19, and 21. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 17-18, 20, and 22. Maximum daytime temperatures 6-13 C (43-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-3 C (34-37 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Showers forecast March 16, 19, and 21. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 17-18, 20, and 22. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-13 C (41-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-5 C (34-41 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 16 and 18-20. Light rainfall forecast March 17 and 21-22. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-15 C (52-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-8 C (43-46 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of March 16, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange avalanche warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) and yellow heavy rainfall warnings for Krasnodar Kray. Yellow fog warnings have been issued for Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray and Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Adverse weather may cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the areas affected by severe weather as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highways if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are possible due to ground stops and airport deicing operations.

Context

As Ukraine moves from winter into spring, weather conditions are likely to continue to impact on military operations in the region. As temperatures gradually rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring