Ukraine: Precipitation forecast across much of the region through at least April 6 /update 28

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Light-to-moderate rainfall and some mixed wintry precipitation are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least April 6. A mix of snow, sleet, and rainfall is forecast in eastern regions on March 30 and light rainfall is expected in northern and western regions on March 31. Light-to-moderate rainfall is forecast across central, northern, southern, and western Ukraine on April 1 and across much of the country on April 2. Generally drier conditions are expected on April 3, before rain returns for much of the country on April 4; the rain may be accompanied by sleet in places. Temperatures are expected to rise across much of Ukraine from March 31-April 2 and are expected to stay above 10 C (50 F) during the day in eastern and southern regions through April 4, but will drop in northern, western, and some central regions from April 3.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern and western regions due to fluctuating river levels caused by recent precipitation and snow melt. As of March 30, orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Desna River basin in Chernihiv Oblast. Yellow warnings (level 2) have been issued for the Pripyat and Western Bug river basins in Volyn Oblast and the San and Western Bug river basins in Lviv Oblast and green warnings for the Dniester River basin in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil. and Vinnytsia oblasts. Yellow avalanche warnings (level 2 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in southern and western Ivano-Frankivsk and eastern and northern Zakarpattia oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast March 30. Largely dry March 31 and light rainfall April 1-2. Sleet and rain on April 3, dry April 4, and light rainfall on April 5. Maximum daytime temperatures of 4-16 C (39-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of -2-7 C (28-45 F).

• Luhansk: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast March 30-31. Largely dry April 1-2 and 4. Sleet and rain are forecast April 3 and light rainfall April 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-14 C (36-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-7 C (30-45 F).

• Donetsk: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast March 30-31. Largely dry April 1 and 4. Light rainfall forecast April 2 and 5 and sleet and rain April 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-14 C (36-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-8 C (28-46 F).

• Mariupol: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast March 30-31. Largely dry April 1 and 4. Light rainfall forecast April 2 and 5 and sleet and rain April 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-14 C (36-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-11 C (34-52 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 30-April 2. Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast April 3-5. Maximum daytime temperatures 6-15 C (43-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-7 C (25-45 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast March 30. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 31-April 1 and April 5. Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast April 2-4. Maximum daytime temperatures 3-16 C (37-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-6 C (28-43 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 30-31 and April 2. Light rainfall forecast April 1, 3, and 4 and moderate rainfall forecast April 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 4-12 C (39-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-4 C (32-39 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rainfall forecast March 30-31 and April 3-5. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation April 1-2. Maximum daytime temperatures 6-13 C (43-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-6 C (32-43 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast March 30. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 30-April 4. Rainfall forecast April 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-19 C (36-66 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-10 C (32-50 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of March 30, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for avalanches, freezing temperatures, and a combination of precipitation and storms for Krasnodar Kray and for freezing rain and temperatures for Rostov Oblast. Yellow snow/ice warnings have been issued for Rostov Oblast, freezing rain and fog warnings for parts of Crimea, rain warnings for Voronezh Oblast, and wind warnings for Belgorod, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts and across Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring