Ukraine: Spells of precipitation and mild temperatures forecast across much of the country through at least March 16 /update 25

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Spells of precipitation are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least March 16. Precipitation is largely forecast to fall in the form of rain due to unseasonably mild temperatures; however, some wintry precipitation is possible, especially during colder nights. Rain and sleet are forecast in western regions March 9 and some light rain is possible in the north. Further light rainfall is forecast in eastern, southern, and far western regions March 10 and across much of the country March 11. A mixture of rain, sleet, and wet snow is expected across northern and western regions March 12, with rain expected in the east and south. Largely drier conditions are expected across much of Ukraine March 13-15. Temperatures are generally expected to be well above average for the time of year, especially during the day. Highs of up to 18 C (64 F) are possible in parts of Ukraine over the coming days, although at times temperatures may still drop down to around freezing at night.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern and western regions due to precipitation and fluctuating river levels caused by ice formation and precipitation. As of March 9, yellow hydrological warnings (level 2 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Desna River basin in Chernihiv Oblast and green warnings for the Prut river basin in Ivano-Frankivsk and Chernivtsi oblasts and the Tysa river basin in Zakarpattia. Orange avalanche warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in southern and western Ivano-Frankivsk and eastern and northern Zakarpattia oblasts, as well as green warnings in parts of far western Chernivtsi and southern Lviv oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Light showers forecast March 9-11 and heavier rainfall March 12. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 13-15. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-13 C (41-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-6 C (27-43 F).

• Luhansk: Light showers forecast March 9-11 and heavier rainfall March 12. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 13-15. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-13 C (41-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-11 C (28-52 F).

• Donetsk: Light showers forecast March 9-11 and heavier rainfall March 12. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 13-15. Maximum daytime temperatures 6-16 C (43-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-10 C (28-50 F).

• Mariupol: Light showers forecast March 9-11 and heavier rainfall March 12. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 13-15. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-13 C (41-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-8 C (36-46 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 9 and March 13-15. Light rainfall forecast March 10-12. Maximum daytime temperatures 7-16 C (45-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-7 C (27-45 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 9 and March 13-15. Light rainfall forecast March 10-12. Maximum daytime temperatures 6-16 C (43-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-7 C (25-45 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 9-10 and March 14-15. Light rainfall forecast March 11-13. Maximum daytime temperatures 4-10 C (39-50 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-5 C (28-41 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 9 and March 14-15. Light rainfall forecast March 10-13. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-12 C (41-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-9 C (30-48 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light rainfall forecast March 9-12. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 13-15. Maximum daytime temperatures 8-17 C (46-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-11 C (32-52 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of March 9, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow freezing rain warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) for Byransk and Kursk oblasts, as well as yellow snow, ice, and wet snow warnings for Bryansk Oblast and yellow rain warnings for Kursk Oblast. Yellow strong wind warnings have been issued for Belgorod and Kursk oblasts and parts of Crimea. Yellow fog warnings have been issued for Kursk Oblast and yellow avalanche warnings for Krasnodar Kray. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Adverse weather may cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the areas affected by severe weather as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are possible due to ground stops and airport deicing operations.

Context

As Ukraine moves from winter into spring, weather conditions are likely to continue to impact on military operations in the region. As temperatures gradually rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring