Kenya: Protests possible nationwide through mid-April after opposition leader calls off protest campaign April 3. /update 6

Event

As of April 3, opposition leader Raila Odinga announced the suspension of a nationwide protest campaign following President William Ruto's call for the creation of a bipartisan parliamentary committee to revise the electoral process. Despite this, opposition-led protests by supporters of the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition Party (Azimio) remain possible through mid-April; Azimio has been demanding reforms to the electoral commission and better living conditions. Odinga warned that protests against Ruto's government would resume should talks fail. Odinga had previously called on his supporters to engage in a "Mega Monday" protest on 3 April.

Despite the suspension of the protest campaign, demonstrations and related gatherings could continue to take place, especially near government buildings, stadiums, prominent squares in city centers, and along major thoroughfares. Security personnel will almost certainly be deployed in urban centers across the country and will likely attempt to break up any gatherings that materialize; given that the protests remain banned, the potential for clashes between security forces and protesters is elevated should protests occur. Counter protests by Ruto's supporters are also possible, and clashes between groups of rival activists cannot be ruled out. Transport and business disruptions are likely in areas subject to protest activity.

Context

Protests occurred despite authorities imposing an indefinite, nationwide ban on all Azimio protests on March 26. The directive was issued after Odinga called for indefinite nationwide protests every Monday and Thursday from March 27. Odinga had warned that the protests would go ahead despite the demonstration ban. Protests and clashes took place on March 27 and March 30 in several areas, including in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Homa Bay counties. Some individuals reportedly engaged in acts of vandalism and looting amid the protests; notably, the offices of Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party were set ablaze in the town of Siaya.

For their part, police fired tear gas to disperse crowds in multiple areas. Kenya Railways authorities also suspended commuter train services in Nairobi March 30, including on the Syokimau, Ruiru, Embakasi, Kahawa West, and Kikuyu routes. As of 3 April, three protests have been held in the past two weeks, with reports suggesting at least three protestors were killed and 400 injured, including 60 police officers.

Azimio initially called for mass demonstrations in response to the government's failure to address the party's concerns in accordance with a 14-day ultimatum issued Feb. 22. As part of the ultimatum, activists demanded Ruto's resignation and that authorities work to lower the cost of living, among other concessions.

Advice

Avoid all protests and large gatherings due to the risk of associated violence, and adhere to instructions issued by local authorities. Avoid traveling at night. Plan for delays near gathering areas. If violence occurs nearby, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building.