Sudan: Further violence likely nationwide, particularly in Khartoum, despite 72-hour ceasefire enacted from 00:01 April 25 /update 13

Event

Further deadly clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remain likely over the coming days across Sudan despite a 72-hour ceasefire enacted from 00:01 April 25. The ceasefire comes amid ongoing evacuation efforts carried out by various foreign governments and international organizations. The truce appears to be holding as of early April 25, at least in Khartoum; there were no reported gunfire or explosions as yet. However, severe disruptions to internet services are ongoing nationwide, while food, water, and fuel supplies are becoming increasingly scarce.

Since April 15, airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machine gunfire have been reported in several cities. The casualty toll from fighting across the country has reportedly surpassed 420 deaths, including at least one US national, with an additional 3,700 wounded. Casualty figures will likely increase over the coming days.

Travel disruptions
While officials in Chad closed the country's land border with Sudan until further notice from April 15 due to the clashes, other neighboring countries have not formally made any announcement; land borders are most likely subject to heightened surveillance by border military forces. International air traffic is severely disrupted: KRT has suspended operations, and several airlines, including UAE and Saudi Arabian-based companies, have also suspended flights to the country. Sudanese airspace is closed to passenger traffic through April 30.

Khartoum
As of April 25, large areas of the city remain contested. Prior to the ceasefire, clashes were concentrated in the city center near KRT, the Presidential Palace, and the Army Command. Clashes have also occurred in multiple areas, including Khartoum North, the twin city of Omdurman, and along the Nile near bridges. SAF airstrikes have been reported in some areas of the city. It is unclear if the SAF or the RSF retains control of key infrastructure and installations, though de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated on April 22 that the SAF control all the country's airports except for Nyala Airport (UYL) and KRT, which remain contested. The veracity of Burhan's statement cannot be independently confirmed. The continued fighting between RAF and SAF has prompted power outages and water shortages in several city areas. The majority of hospitals are either out of service or running at very low capabilities due to damage and lack of medicines.

The US Embassy in Sudan mentioned reports of looting, home invasions, and assaults on April 20. In addition, an EU diplomat and a US diplomatic convoy were attacked in two separate incidents in Khartoum on April 17, while a French national part of a diplomatic convoy was shot during an evacuation operation on April 23; it is unclear who the perpetrators of these assaults were. Other civilian convoys came under attack by thieves as evacuations were ongoing.

Elsewhere
Since April 15, clashes have also been reported in El Obeid, Ad-Damazin, El Fasher, El Geneina, El Obeid, Merowe, Nyala, and Port Sudan. Localized inter-communal clashes due to the evacuation of security personnel have been reported. Other locations have likely been impacted.

Rival security forces will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport nodes. Related disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet services, and access to basic goods are likely. The implementation of curfews is also possible.

Context

Clashes began at approximately 09:00 on April 15 and were triggered by persistent tensions between the two security groups. Both the RSF and SAF have blamed the other for initiating the violence. The government has labeled the RSF a 'rebel' force. The recent fighting between the SAF and RSF is a continuation of a years-long power struggle between Sudan's de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the leader of the RSF, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. The pair have quarreled over several issues, including plans to integrate the RSF into the SAF, effectively resulting in Hemedti losing control over the former.

Tensions between the two leaders worsened after the military and civilian opposition groups signed a deal to end the impasse between security and political elites in December. Under the signed framework, the formation of a transitional civilian government was scheduled in early April; however, several issues hindered the deal's implementation, including the abovementioned disagreement between al-Burhan and Hemedti over the integration of the RSF into the military.

The RSF mainly evolved out of the Janjaweed militias, which former President Omar Bashir had organized to put down an uprising in Darfur in 2003. The RSF is separate from the Sudanese regular military and has been competing for power and resources for years. In 2013, Bashir reshaped the group into a paramilitary organization by giving its leaders military ranks.

Advice

Shelter in place until the clashes end. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Persons planning to travel to Sudan should defer travel until the situation stabilizes. Avoid concentrations of security personnel. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information. Reconfirm all flights if scheduled to fly to, from, or via Sudan over the coming days. Reconfirm the status of road routes before traveling. Travel with identification. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water.

Resources

French Embassy in Sudan
US Embassy in Sudan
UK Foreign Travel Advice
Australian Government (Smartraveller)
Government of Canada - Sudan Travel Advice
German Embassy in Sudan
Embassy of Japan in Sudan