08 Apr 2024 | 03:17 PM UTC
Arabian Peninsula: Continued attacks in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late April /update 9
Further attacks against vessels in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late April.
Further maritime incidents and associated disruptions are likely in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula through at least late April amid prevailing heightened tensions. Al-Houthi forces continue to target vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, including US and UK warships, with one civilian vessel sunk as a result of the attacks as of April 8. Though Al-Houthi attacks continue, their frequency has reduced in recent weeks, with an average of approximately one missile attack a week from mid-March to April 8. This has been attributed to the effect of US and UK airstrikes on Al-Houthi targets by the commander of US Air Forces Central Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich. Despite this, Al-Houthi forces threatened in mid-March to expand attacks to target shipping in the wider Indian Ocean using hypersonic missiles. Houthi and Russian sources claim the group successfully tested one such missile in early March.
Al-Houthi militants initially claimed that their attacks would target Israel-linked assets in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip; this threat has since been expanded to include US and UK-linked vessels following airstrikes by these countries against Al-Houthi targets in Yemen. Shipping vessels from other states participating in maritime protection operations in the Red Sea, or deemed by the Al-Houthis to have aided the US and UK strikes, may also be targeted. Iran, too, is suspected of targeting Israel-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea and has seized several tankers near its coast.
Operation Prosperity Guardian, a US-led expanded maritime protection force in and around the Red Sea, has been set up to provide additional security for shipping in the region. The EU also launched its own protective mission, Operation Aspides, in mid-February. US, UK, French, Italian, and German naval forces have destroyed several unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missiles, speedboats, and unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), as well as at least one unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV).
Major shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO, maintain a policy of reduced or suspended transits through the Red Sea as of early April, as have oil and gas producers BP, Shell, and QatarEnergy. Several smaller cargo and energy shipping companies are also limiting or suspending transits. Additional companies may also halt operations in the Red Sea in the near term.
Attacks are typically preceded by an entity claiming to be the Yemeni Navy hailing the vessel on Channel 16 VHF in an attempt to divert the vessel toward Yemen. Individuals may also attempt to board the vessel from skiffs or fast boats, and exchanges of fire with ships' armed security teams have been reported.
A heightened naval presence is certain in the region as the conflict between Hamas and Israel continues. Further attacks are likely in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and northern Arabian Sea in the coming days and weeks. Maritime disruptions are likely to occur.
Exercise caution and reconfirm routes with maritime authorities if transiting or shipping freight near the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or northern Arabian Sea. Companies should regularly review their ship security assessment and plan under the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), particularly in piracy-prone areas. Companies are advised to maintain strict anti-piracy watches and report all pirate activity - including both actual and attempted attacks, as well as suspicious sightings - to local naval authorities.
The incidents in the Red Sea coincide with increased tensions in the region connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Iranian-backed groups throughout the region have pledged solidarity with Palestinians and carried out attacks against Israeli or US-linked targets since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli response.
Yemen's Iran-backed Al-Houthi rebels have stated that they regard Israeli shipping as a legitimate target and that they would continue attacks until Israel's operations in Gaza come to an end. The Al-Houthis possess an extensive arsenal of anti-shipping weaponry, including naval mines, waterborne improvised explosive devices (WBIED), drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles. The group has previously attempted to seize vessels in the vicinity of Al-Hudaydah and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reports of suspicious approaches involving skiffs are relatively commonplace. US, Saudi, and Emirati naval vessels, as well as a number of civilian ships, have also been targeted during the nearly decade-long Yemeni Civil War. The Al-Houthis also possess ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and weaponized drones, some of which have the range to strike targets in Israel, and the group has claimed a number of attempted strikes on Israeli territory since Oct. 7.
Iran has struck Israel-linked shipping in the Arabian Sea multiple times in recent years. Typically, incidents involve the use of weaponized drones at long distances from shore and occur during periods of heightened tensions between the two countries, such as after alleged Israeli attacks on Iranian interests in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or at sea.
