02 Dec 2024 | 02:11 PM UTC
Arabian Peninsula: Continued attacks in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late December /update 16
Further attacks against vessels in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through at least late December.
Further maritime incidents and associated disruptions are likely in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula through at least late December amid prevailing heightened tensions. Al-Houthi attacks have continued to decline since September, likely due to a lack of targeting opportunities as shipping companies avoid the Red Sea, though it is also possible that US, UK, and Israeli airstrikes are having an impact.
While the Al-Houthis targeted several vessels transiting through the Red Sea in November, there were no confirmed hits or reported damages. In the first attack in November, US destroyers USS Spruance and Stockdale were targeted by several projectiles as they transited the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The vessels destroyed all projectiles, and there were no damages or casualties. The attack came after US and UK aircraft carried out airstrikes on targets in Yemen a few days prior. The USS Stockdale was targeted again between Nov. 30-Dec. 1, along with the USS O'Kane, while transiting the Gulf of Aden, but all projectiles were destroyed.
Other vessels reported missiles falling into surrounding waters throughout November. On Nov. 17-18, Panama-flagged bulk carrier Andalou S was targeted in two attacks near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, approximately 26 NM (30 miles, 48 km) from the port city of Mocha, Yemen. The vessel sustained no damages, and no one on board was injured. Before the attack, the Andalou S had been contacted over the radio by someone claiming to be Yemeni authorities, demanding that the ship turn around, but the vessel did not comply with these orders.
US and UK airstrikes continued against Al-Houthi targets throughout November. The US and UK carried out multiple airstrikes in various locations in Yemen. The attacks targeted areas suspected to be Al-Houthi weapons storages and bases. Additionally, Israeli forces reported the downing of unmanned aerial vehicles and/or missiles from the Al-Houthis and Iraq's Islamic Resistance in the northern Red Sea throughout October, likely targeting Eilat or cities in central Israel.
Al-Houthi militants initially claimed that their attacks would target Israel-linked assets in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip; this threat has since been expanded to include US and UK-linked vessels following airstrikes by these countries against Al-Houthi targets in Yemen, as well as vessels belonging to any shipping company doing business with Israel. Shipping vessels from other states participating in maritime protection operations in the Red Sea or deemed by the Al-Houthis to have aided the US and UK strikes may also be targeted. Iran, too, is suspected of targeting Israel-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea and has seized several tankers near its coast.
Operation Prosperity Guardian, a US-led expanded maritime protection force in and around the Red Sea, has been set up to provide additional security for shipping in the region. The EU also launched its own protective mission, Operation Aspides, in mid-February. The US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group departed the Middle East Nov. 16-17 following a three-month deployment. The USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group is to be deployed in its place. The Al-Houthis may step up attacks against shipping to take advantage of the possible reduction in hostile air presence before the USS Harry S. Truman group arrives in the region.
Major shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO, maintain a policy of reduced or suspended transits through the Red Sea, as have oil and gas producers BP, Shell, and QatarEnergy. Several smaller cargo and energy shipping companies are also limiting or suspending transits. Additional companies may also halt operations in the Red Sea in the near term.
Attacks are typically preceded by an entity claiming to be the Yemeni Navy hailing the vessel on Channel 16 VHF in an attempt to divert the vessel toward Yemen. Individuals may also attempt to board the vessel from skiffs or fast boats, and exchanges of fire with ships' armed security teams have been reported.
Exercise caution and reconfirm routes with maritime authorities if transiting or shipping freight near the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or northern Arabian Sea. Companies should regularly review their ship security assessment and plan under the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), particularly in piracy-prone areas. Companies are advised to maintain strict anti-piracy watches and report all pirate activity - including both actual and attempted attacks, as well as suspicious sightings - to local naval authorities.
The incidents in the Red Sea coincide with increased tensions in the region connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Iranian-backed groups throughout the region have pledged solidarity with Palestinians and carried out attacks against Israeli or US-linked targets since the Oct. 7 2023 Hamas attack in southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli response. Yemen's Iran-backed Al-Houthi rebels have stated that they regard Israeli shipping as a legitimate target and that they would continue attacks until Israel's operations in Gaza come to an end. The Al-Houthis stated further on Nov. 3 that they will not recognize ownership changes of vessels priorly owned by Israeli companies and that these vessels will still be targeted.
The Al-Houthis possess an extensive arsenal of anti-shipping weaponry, including naval mines, waterborne improvised explosive devices (WBIED), drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles. The group has previously attempted to seize vessels near Al-Hudaydah and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reports of suspicious approaches involving skiffs are relatively commonplace. US, Saudi, and Emirati naval vessels, as well as several civilian ships, have also been targeted during the nearly decade-long Yemeni Civil War. The Al-Houthis also possess ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and weaponized drones, some of which have the range to strike targets in Israel, and the group has claimed several attempted strikes on Israeli territory since Oct. 7.
Reports on Oct. 28 alleged that Russia shared data on vessels transiting the Red Sea with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stationed in Yemen, who in turn used the data to assist Al-Houthi's efforts to target shipping. The report follows alleged talks between the Al-Houthis and Russia over the latter's supply of weaponry to the group, which has been linked to the West's support for Ukraine. If accurate, the reports highlight Russian efforts to use conflicts in the Middle East to destabilize the US and its allies by tying up their resources and threatening key supply chain routes, discouraging further support for Ukraine. Furthermore, the United Nations (UN) Panel of Exports on Yemen reported in early November that the Al-Houthis may be receiving approximately USD 180 million a month from shipping companies in exchange for not targeting their vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The UN Panel has been unable to confirm the number.
Iran has struck Israel-linked shipping in the Arabian Sea multiple times in recent years. Typically, incidents involve the use of weaponized drones at long distances from shore and occur during periods of heightened tensions between the two countries, such as after alleged Israeli attacks on Iranian interests in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or at sea.
