02 Jan 2025 | 01:39 PM UTC
Arabian Peninsula: Continued attacks in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late January /update 17
Further attacks against vessels in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through at least late January.
Further maritime incidents and associated disruptions are likely in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula through at least late January amid prevailing heightened tensions. Al-Houthi attacks continued to decline through December, with nine attacks recorded since September. This is likely due to a lack of targeting opportunities as shipping companies avoid the Red Sea, though it is also possible that US, UK, and Israeli airstrikes are having an impact. The Al-Houthis stated on Dec. 17 that while the group would be prepared to sign a roadmap to bring an end to Yemen’s civil war, they will not cease attacks in the Red Sea, as these operations are considered unrelated to the civil war.
The only significant maritime incidents in December involved the Al-Houthis targeting US-flagged cargo vessels and their destroyer escorts on two occasions in early December. Neither attack resulted in any damage or casualties. The US has since deployed an aircraft carrier task force to the region, having been without one in the region since mid-November.
The US and Israel carried out airstrikes against Al-Houthi targets in Yemen in December. Targets have included command-and-control facilities, port and energy infrastructure, and weapons sites. These strikes have primarily affected the cities of Al-Hudaydah and Sanaa. Port facilities in Al-Hudaydah are likely to be significantly affected by the strikes. As well as limiting the ability of the Al-Houthis to receive arms by sea, they are likely also to affect the delivery of much-needed humanitarian aid to northwestern Yemen. Air strikes will likely continue through at least the end of January.
International naval missions are active in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to provide additional security for shipping in the region. Despite this, many shipping companies continue to avoid or limit Red Sea transits.
Exercise caution and reconfirm routes with maritime authorities if transiting or shipping freight near the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or northern Arabian Sea. Companies should regularly review their ship security assessment and plan under the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), particularly in piracy-prone areas. Companies are advised to maintain strict anti-piracy watches and report all pirate activity - including both actual and attempted attacks, as well as suspicious sightings - to local naval authorities.
The incidents in the Red Sea coincide with increased tensions in the region connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Iranian-backed groups throughout the region have pledged solidarity with Palestinians and carried out attacks against Israeli or US-linked targets since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack in southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli response. Yemen's Iran-backed Al-Houthi rebels have stated that they regard Israeli shipping as a legitimate target and that they would continue attacks until Israel's operations in Gaza come to an end. Vessels linked with the US and UK, as well as any country believed to be assisting US and UK airstrikes against the Al-Houthis, have also been threatened. Iran, too, is suspected of targeting Israel-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea and has seized several tankers near its coast.
The Al-Houthis possess an extensive arsenal of anti-shipping weaponry, including naval mines, waterborne improvised explosive devices (WBIED), drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles. The group has previously attempted to seize vessels near Al-Hudaydah and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reports of suspicious approaches involving skiffs are relatively commonplace. US, Saudi, and Emirati naval vessels, as well as several civilian ships, have also been targeted during the nearly decade-long Yemeni Civil War. The Al-Houthis also possess ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and weaponized drones, some of which have the range to strike targets in Israel, and the group has claimed several attempted strikes on Israeli territory since Oct. 7, 2023.
