Ukraine: Further precipitation forecast across much of the region through May 4 /update 32

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Further spells of precipitation are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least May 4. A storm system is forecast to move over the eastern half of Ukraine April 27-28, bringing heavy downpours, strong winds, and possible thunderstorms. Storms and showers are expected to linger in eastern and southern regions April 29, with light rainfall also forecast in western regions. Light-to-moderate rainfall is forecast across much of the country April 30 and heavy downpours and thunderstorms are again forecast in the eastern half of Ukraine May 1. Further intermittent showers are likely across many parts of the country May 2-3. Generally mild temperatures are expected across much of the country over the coming week; however, cold nights are forecast in western regions April 28-29, with temperatures reaching around freezing.

Flooding remains a concern across much of northern and central Ukraine due to fluctuating river levels caused by recent precipitation and snow melt. Many rivers across northern and central regions have spread over floodplains in recent weeks. Around 1,000 houses remain submerged by floodwaters across parts of Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, and Volyn oblasts. More than 30 roads are impassable in Chernihiv and Kyiv oblasts and thousands of hectares of agricultural land have also been flooded. The relatively persistent and widespread precipitation forecast over the coming days could bring a further flood threat to other regions as river levels continue to rise.

As of April 27, the Ukraine Hydrometeorological Center has issued yellow thunderstorm, hail, and squally wind warnings across much of the country's eastern half. Orange and yellow frost warnings have been issued for parts of western Ukraine April 28. The center has also issued red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) hydrological warnings for the middle Dnieper Basin in Cherkasy Oblast and orange hydrological warnings for the upper Dnieper and Desna basins in Chernihiv Oblast, the middle Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Poltava oblasts, and the lower Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Poltava, and Zaporizhizhia oblasts. Yellow hydrological warnings are in place for the middle Dnieper and Desna basins in Kyiv Oblast and green warnings for the Prut Basin in Chernivtsi and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts and the Siret Basin in Chernivtsi Oblast. Orange avalanche warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in southern and western Ivano-Frankivsk and southeastern Zakarpattia oblasts. Green avalanche warnings are in place for parts of eastern and northern Zakarpattia Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Rainfall forecast April 27-May 2, with possible thunderstorms April 27-29 and May 1. Largely dry and cloudy May 3. Maximum daytime temperatures of 12-20 C (54-68 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 4-11 C (39-52 F).

• Luhansk: Rainfall forecast April 27-May 2, with possible thunderstorms April 27-29 and May 1. Largely dry and cloudy May 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-21 C (52-70 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 7-13 C (45-55 F).

• Donetsk: Rainfall forecast April 27-May 2, with possible thunderstorms April 27-29 and May 1. Largely dry and cloudy May 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-20 C (52-68 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-12 C (43-54 F).

• Mariupol: Rainfall forecast April 27-May 2, with possible thunderstorms April 27-29 and May 1. Largely dry and cloudy May 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-18 C (55-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 10-15 C (50-59 F).

• Kherson: Rainfall forecast April 27-May 2, with possible thunderstorms April 27-29 and May 1. Largely dry and cloudy May 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-23 C (55-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-10 C (39-50 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Rainfall forecast April 27-May 2, with possible thunderstorms April 27-29 and May 1. Largely dry and cloudy May 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-19 C (55-66 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-10 C (41-50 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 27-28, May 1, and May 3. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 29-30 and partly cloudy and dry May 2. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-20 C (54-68 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-10 C (39-50 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Cloudy with light rain forecast April 27-May 2. Cloudy and dry May 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-22 C (55-72 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-8 C (41-46 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Cloudy and dry April 27 and 29. Cloudy with rain April 28 and partly cloudy with light rain April 30-May 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 15-23 C (59-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-12 C (46-54 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of April 27, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for a combination of heavy downpours, thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for Krasnodar Kray and orange rain warnings for parts of Crimea. Yellow rain warnings have been issued for Bryansk and Rostov oblasts and yellow thunderstorm warnings for Belgorod, Bryansk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts, as well as for Crimea and Krasnodar Kray. Yellow hail warnings have been issued for Belgorod Oblast and yellow wind warnings for Belgorod, Bryansk, and Rostov oblasts, as well as parts of Crimea. Yellow fog warnings have been issued for Crimea and Krasnodar Kray and yellow forest fire warnings are in place for Kursk Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring