29 May 2023 | 07:50 AM UTC
Afghanistan: Adverse weather forecast across southeastern regions through May 30
Severe weather forecast across southeastern Afghanistan through May 30. Possible transport, business, and utility disruptions.
Event
Severe weather is forecast across southeastern Afghanistan through at least May 30. As of early May 29, the Afghanistan Meteorological Department warned of heavy rain, thunderstorms, strong winds, and possible flash flooding in Badakhshan, Baghlan, Bamyan, Daykundi, Ghazni, Kabul, Kapisa, Khost, Kunar, Laghman, Logar, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktika, Paktia, Panjsher, Parwan, Wardak, and Zabul provinces. Rainfall totals of 1-3 cm (0.4-1.2 inches) are likely. The worst affected areas are likely far eastern Bamyan, far northern Ghazni, southern Khost, eastern Kunar, western Nangarhar, eastern Nuristan, eastern and central Paktika, western Parwan, and eastern and central Wardak provinces, where red warnings are in place. Officials could update and extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.
Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.
Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.
Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.
Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in affected areas.
Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
