Bay of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone 1 tracking northwestwards as of early May 11

Event

Tropical Cyclone 1 is tracking northwestwards across Bay of Bengal early May 11. As of 08:00 IST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1278 km (794 miles) south of Kolkata, India. Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a very severe cyclonic storm as it tracks generally north and passes well west of India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands through the evening of May 12. The storm is likely to strengthen further through early May 14 and make landfall as a very severe cyclonic storm over northwestern Rakhine State in Myanmar early May 14. The system is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks over western then northern Myanmar through May 15 before dissipating over far western Yunnan Province in China early May 16. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming days.

As of early May 11, the India Meteorological Department has issued orange (middle level on a three-tier scale) thunderstorm, heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands May 11 and yellow thunderstorm, heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds for the areas May 12-15. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Severe weather will likely prompt internet and mobile telecommunications disruptions in affected areas; service disruptions may be exacerbated by power outages caused by the cyclone. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
India Meteorological Department
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology