North Korea: Pyongyang plans satellite launch toward Sea of Japan May 31-June 11

Event

North Korea has announced plans to launch a satellite toward the Sea of Japan (East Sea) May 31-June 11. The specific date is unclear. Japan has placed its ballistic missile defence systems on alert, and has warned it will destroy projectiles landing in its territory. Localized measures such as orders to evacuate or seek secure shelter, as well as precautionary suspensions of transport lines, may affect areas where officials calculate the projectile will land.

Context

North Korea has intensified missile launches and weapon testing in the previous months, including the launch of a solid-fuel missile indicating the continued expansion of North Korea's nuclear capabilities. Pyongyang is anticipated to launch its first military reconnaissance satellite in this period. Additional missile launches remain possible in the coming weeks.

Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated that it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. North Korean leaders have previously warned of stronger actions in response to US sanctions. However, both sides will likely avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.