24 May 2023 | 03:22 AM UTC
North Pacific: Typhoon Mawar tracking north-northwestward toward Guam as of afternoon May 24 /update 5
Typhoon Mawar tracking north-northwest in the North Pacific Ocean as of afternoon May 24. Landfall likely over Guam over the coming hours.
Event
Typhoon Mawar is tracking north-northwestward in the North Pacific Ocean the afternoon of May 24. As of 13:00 ChST, the storm was approximately 102 km (63 miles) southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. Forecast models indicate that Mawar will make landfall over Guam late afternoon May 24. After passing Guam, the system is likely to strengthen into a super typhoon by early May 26 as it tracks west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea late May 24-late May 26. Mawar is then forecast to weaken into a typhoon by early May 29 as it turns to track northwestward over the western Philippine Sea May 27-29. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.
Authorities have issued typhoon warnings for Guam and Rota. Tropical storm warnings and typhoon watches have been issued for Saipan and Tinian. Flood watches and coastal flood warnings are in place for Guam and all the Northern Marianas Islands through the afternoon of May 25. Heavy rainfall is likely through May 25; 7.5-13 cm (3-5 inches) is possible. Authorities in Guam have warned that torrential rains may result in landslides and flash flooding, while catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surges are likely, with potentially catastrophic coastal flooding possible for southeastern and southern portions of Guam if the storm makes landfall further south. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.
Authorities in Guam ordered residents in all low-lying, flood-prone, and coastal areas to evacuate by 18:00 ChST May 23; all other residents are advised to remain indoors during the passing of the storm. Authorities have warned that all preparations for the protection of life and property should now be complete; residents should be in a fully-reinforced concrete structure. Crews opened 12 emergency shelters in advance of the storm, but the shelter at Harry S. Truman Elementary School was closed due to a generator problems. The shelter at Astumbo Elementary School is at capacity. As of early May 24, more than 900 people have evacuated to the emergency shelters.
A state of emergency was declared in Guam May 22, and authorities approved an emergency declaration for the Northern Mariana Islands May 23 to allow for additional resources and assistance due to the potential impacts of the storms. Officials have suspended all commercial traffic in ports in Guam. Authorities in the Northern Marianas Islands canceled public school classes from May 23. Officials at Antonio B. Won Pat International Airport (GUM) have canceled most flights May 23-24. United Airlines (UA) canceled most flights to and from Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands May 23-24. Further cancellations and delays to other flights are likely as the storm approaches and weather conditions deteriorate. The Guam Power Authority does not intend to shut down the island-wide power system, but power outages and fluctuations are ongoing. Repair operations remain suspended due to adverse weather conditions; repairs are likely to resume when weather conditions improve. Additional power outages are likely if there is damage to the circuit.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
