Philippine Sea: Super Typhoon Mawar tracking west-northwest across Philippine Sea away from Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands as of afternoon May 25 /update 7

Event

Super Typhoon Mawar is tracking west-northwestwards across the Philippine Sea, away from Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands as of May 25. As of 13:00 ChST, the storm was approximately 165 km (102 miles) west-northwest of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. The center of the storm passed through the Rota Channel between Guam and Rota Islands late May 24, and the severe weather conditions across the island territories are forecast to gradually improve through May 25.

Forecast models indicate that the system is likely to strengthen slightly as it tracks west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea through early May 27. Mawar is then forecast to weaken back into a typhoon early May 28 as it turns to track northwestward over the western Philippine Sea towards Taiwan through May 30. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the afternoon of May 25, authorities are maintaining typhoon warnings for Guam and Rota and flood watches for Guam through early May 26. Additional rainfall of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) is possible over Guam; flooding is likely, especially in low-lying and flood-prone locations. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

A state of emergency was declared in Guam on May 22, and President Biden approved an emergency declaration for the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam on May 23 to allow for additional resources and assistance due to the potential impacts of the storms. Officials had suspended all commercial traffic in ports in Guam. Officials at Antonio B. Won Pat International Airport (GUM) have canceled most flights May 23-24; some flights have resumed May 25, but most remain canceled. Rota International Airport (ROP), Saipan International Airport (GSN), and Tinian International Airport (TIQ) remain open, but airlines servicing the airports canceled all domestic and international flights May 23 and 24 as a precaution. Flights are likely to resume as weather conditions improve and authorities conduct damage assessments. Further flight disruptions are likely as airlines work to clear backlogs. All ports on Rota, Saipan, and Tinian are closed until further notice.

Reports indicate that most of Hagatna Village in Guam is flooded. Most of Guam is without power as of late May 24, except for around 1,000 people in parts of the north serviced by underground transmission lines. Repair operations remain suspended due to adverse weather conditions; repairs are likely to resume when weather conditions improve. Reports indicate that all of Rota is without power. Authorities have also implemented precautionary water service interruptions on Rota Island. No casualties associated with the storm have yet been reported; however, it may take some time for the full extent of the storm's impact to be known, as comprehensive damage assessments will likely have to wait until the severe weather has passed.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center