Philippine Sea: Super Typhoon Mawar tracking westward across the Philippine Sea as of late May 27 /update 8

Event

Super Typhoon Mawar (named Betty in the Philippines) is tracking westward across the Philippine Sea late May 27. As of 20:00 PHST, the storm was approximately 1,124 km (698 miles) south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly as it turns to track west-northwestward and then northwestward May 27-30, curving away from the northern Philippines and Taiwan. Mawar is then forecast to turn and track northward on May 31 and will weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks north-northeastward and approaches Japan's Yaeyama Islands late June 1. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late May 27, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned of heavy rainfall from the afternoon of May 29 through the afternoon of May 31 in northern parts of Luzon Island and the Babuyan and Batanes Islands. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are expected in the Babuyan and Batanes islands and parts of Apayao, northern mainland Cagayan. Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur provinces May 29-30. Totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are expected in the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region and La Union Province May 29-30, Rainfall totals of greater than 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in the Batanes Islands May 30-31 and totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) in the Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union provinces. Totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are likely in Cordillera Administrative Region and northern mainland Cagayan May 30-31. Higher rainfall totals are possible in mountainous parts of the affected regions, and heavy downpours could trigger flooding and landslides in affected areas. Strong winds are also forecast in northern parts of the Philippines. PAGASA has issued Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No.1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) for the Batanes Islands, Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Apayao, central and northern Abra, Kalinga, central and eastern Mountain Province, central and eastern Ifugao, central and northern Aurora, Quirino, and northeastern Nueva Vizcaya provinces. Rough seas are also expected along in eastern and northern coastal areas of the Philippines over the coming days.

The Taiwan Central Meteorological Bureau, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and China Meteorological Administration are all tracking the system; however, as of late May 27, none of the agencies have issued any warnings directly associated with the typhoon. The JMA has warned that strong winds and rough seas are expected to impact parts of Okinawa Prefecture from around May 30, and yellow high wave warnings have been issued across Okinawa and southern Kyushu regions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Meteorological Bureau
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
China Meteorological Administration