Philippine Sea: Typhoon Mawar tracking northwestward east of Taiwan as of May 30 /update 10

Event

Typhoon Mawar (named Betty in the Philippines) is tracking northwestward across the Philippine Sea May 30. As of 12:00 JST, the storm was approximately 732 km (455 miles) south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken into a tropical storm as it turns slowly to track northeastward, passing far east of Taiwan through May 31. Mawar is then forecast to weaken further as it makes a close approach to Okinawa Prefecture, Japan June 1-3, passing southeast of Miyako Island early June 1 and south of Okinawa Island early June 2. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of May 30, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned of heavy rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over Batanes, eastern Babuyan Islands, northeastern mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and northern La Union provinces through early May 31 and across Ilocos Sur and La Union May 31-early June 1.

Heavy downpours could trigger flooding and landslides in affected areas. Strong winds are also forecast in northern parts of the Philippines. PAGASA has issued Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 (the second-lowest level on a five-tier scale) for Batanes and northeastern Cagayan provinces, including the Babuyan Islands. Rough seas are likely along in eastern and northern coastal areas of the Philippines over the coming days.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has warned that strong winds and rough seas will likely impact parts of Okinawa Prefecture from around May 31. Orange high wave warnings are in effect across the Ishigaki and Yonaguni islands in Okinawa Prefecture, while yellow high wave advisories are in place across the rest of Okinawa Prefecture.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Authorities in the Philippines have preemptively more than 5,400 people in northern parts of the country. Officials canceled dozens of flights at Manila Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL) and Mactan-Cebu International Airport (CEB) May 29-31 as a precaution. Classes are canceled in parts of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region, and Western Visayas May 30.

Reports indicate that large waves on the eastern coast of Taiwan early May 28 resulted in one fatality in Hualien County and one missing person in Yilan County.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Meteorological Bureau
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
China Meteorological Administration