Ukraine: Conditions forecast to become slightly drier and colder across much of the region through May 11 /update 33

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Weather conditions are generally forecast to become slightly drier and colder across much of Ukraine through at least May 11. Showers are forecast in northern and western regions May 4-5, western regions May 7, and eastern, southern, and western regions May 9; elsewhere, little significant precipitation is forecast over the coming days. Temperatures are initially expected to be above average for the time of year in central, eastern, and southern regions May 4-5, with highs around 16-23 C (61-73 F). Cooler temperatures of around 10-12 C (50-54 F) are expected in western regions on May 4, and a significant drop across other regions from May 6 will lead to temperatures slightly below the seasonal average across much of Ukraine. Temperatures could even reach below 0 C (32 F) at night in northern parts of the country May 6-7.

Flooding remains a concern across much of northern and central Ukraine due to fluctuating river levels caused by recent precipitation and snow melt. Many rivers across northern and central regions have spread over floodplains in recent weeks. Around 550 houses remain submerged by floodwaters across parts of Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, and Poltava oblasts. Around 27 roads are impassable in Chernihiv Oblast, and thousands of hectares of agricultural land have also been flooded. Flooding is also threatening homes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast around the Kakhovka Reservoir, as the ongoing conflict in the region has limited the ability of authorities to control water drainage infrastructure. The peak of the spring flooding is expected to have now passed; however, further sustained downpours could bring a further flood threat due to high river levels.

As of May 4, the Ukraine Hydrometeorological Center is maintaining red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) hydrological warnings for the middle Dnieper Basin in Cherkasy Oblast and orange hydrological warnings for the upper Dnieper and Desna basins in Chernihiv Oblast, the middle Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Poltava oblasts, and the lower Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhizhia oblasts. Yellow hydrological warnings are in place for the middle Dnieper and Desna basins in Kyiv Oblast. Green avalanche warnings (the lowest on a five-tier scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in eastern Zakarpattia Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation on May 4 and May 6-10. Showers are forecast for May 5. Maximum daytime temperatures of 10-23 C (50-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 3-11 C (37-52 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 4-8. Showers are forecast for May 9-10. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-23 C (50-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-11 C (36-52 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 4-8. Showers are forecast for May 9-10. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-23 C (52-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-12 C (37-54 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 4-8. Showers are forecast for May 9-10. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-20 C (52-68 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-15 C (46-59 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 4-8 and May 10. Showers are forecast for May 9. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-22 C (54-72 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-12 C (37-54 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 4-8 and May 10. Showers are forecast for May 9. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-22 C (54-72 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-11 C (37-52 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation on May 4 and May 6-7. Light rainfall is forecast for May 5 and May 8-10. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-21 C (50-70 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-11 C (34-52 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation on May 4 and May 6-7. Light rainfall is forecast for May 5 and May 8-10. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-22 C (52-72 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-9 C (36-48 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 4-5 and May 7-8. Light rainfall is forecast for May 6 and May 9-10. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-24 C (57-75 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-12 C (43-54 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of May 4, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for cold temperatures in Bryansk Oblast. Yellow thunderstorm warnings have been issued for Bryansk and Kursk oblasts and yellow fog warnings for Bryansk and Kursk oblasts, as well as for Crimea and Krasnodar Kray. Yellow highwater level warnings are also in place for parts of Rostov Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports, and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring