Ukraine: Precipitation forecast across most of the country June 1-3 and 5 /update 37

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Precipitation forecast across most of the country June 1-3 and 5. Downpours may be heavy at times and storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, hail, and lightning. Rainfall is forecast to start in the southern, western, and eastern parts of the country June 1 before spreading over most of the country June 2, and persisting over the central and eastern areas June 3. Rainfall is also likely in the western parts of Ukraine June 5. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in affected areas, and strong winds could cause property damage and power outages. Temperatures are expected to remain above the average for the time of year across most of Ukraine over the coming days, with maximums of 20-28 C (68-82 F) forecast in most areas.

The peak of the spring flood season has passed and water levels in most river basins are starting to decline; however, authorities are maintaining flood warnings across parts of central and southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has issued extreme fire hazard warnings across Chernihiv, Chernivtsi, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Volyn, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Cloudy through June 8 with precipitation forecast June 3. Maximum daytime temperatures of 20-25 C (68-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 9-13 C (48-55 F).

• Luhansk: Cloudy through June 8 with precipitation forecast June 1-3. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-24 C (68-75 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 9-13 C (48-55 F).

• Donetsk: Cloudy through June 8 with precipitation forecast June 1-3. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-24 C (68-75 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 10-14 C (50-57 F).

• Mariupol: Cloudy through June 8 with precipitation forecast June 1-3. Maximum daytime temperatures 21-23 C (70-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 16-18 C (61-64 F).

• Kherson: Cloudy through June 8 with precipitation forecast June 2-3. Cloudy with no significant precipitation May 31. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-26 C (73-79 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-14 C (54-57 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Cloudy through June 8 with precipitation forecast June 1-3. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-24 C (73-75 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-14 C (54-57 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Cloudy through June 8 with precipitation forecast June 1-3. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-25 C (66-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-14 C (46-59 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Cloudy through June 8 with light precipitation forecast June 3 and 6-7. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-26 C (68-79 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 7-12 C (45-54 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Cloudy through June 8 with precipitation forecast June 1 and light precipitation June 2-3 and 7. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-26 C (72-79 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-16 C (55-61 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain southerly into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of May 25, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following warnings across areas bordering Ukraine:

• Orange thunderstorms, heavy rain, strong wind, and hail warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Krasnodar Kray and Rostov Oblast.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Krasnodar Kray and the Republic of Adygea.

• Yellow fog warnings: southeastern Crimea.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports, and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring