Ukraine: Showers and thunderstorms forecast across much of the region through June 1 /update 36

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least June 1. Downpours may be heavy at times and storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, hail, and lightning. The Ukraine Hydrometeorological Center has issued yellow thunderstorm warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across eastern, northeastern, southern, and southwestern Ukraine May 25. Further showers and storms are forecast across much of the country May 26-27 and in eastern and southern regions May 28-30 and western regions May 29-30. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in affected areas and strong winds could cause property damage and power outages. Temperatures are expected to remain above the average for the time of year across most of Ukraine over the coming days, with maximums of 20-25 C (68-77 F) forecast in most areas. Slightly cooler temperatures are likely in western regions May 27-28, with maximums of around 18-22 C (64-72).

The peak of the spring flood season has passed and water levels in most river basins are starting to decline; however, authorities are maintaining flood warnings across parts of central and southern Ukraine. As of May 25, the Ukraine Hydrometeorological Center is maintaining orange (the middle level on a three-tier scale) hydrological warnings for the middle Dnieper Basin in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Poltava oblasts and the lower Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhizhia oblasts. Extreme forest fire risk warnings have been issued across most of central, northern, and southern Ukraine as of May 25. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Showers with occasional thunderstorms forecast May 25-28. Cloudy with no significant precipitation May 29 and 31. Showers forecast May 30. Maximum daytime temperatures of 20-25 C (68-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 10-15 C (50-59 F).

• Luhansk: Showers with occasional thunderstorms forecast May 25-30. Cloudy with no significant precipitation May 31. Maximum daytime temperatures 21-25 C (70-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 11-16 C (52-61 F).

• Donetsk: Showers with occasional thunderstorms forecast May 25-30. Cloudy with no significant precipitation May 31. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-24 C (68-75 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-16 C (54-61 F).

• Mariupol: Showers with occasional thunderstorms forecast May 25-31. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-23 C (68-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 15-20 C (59-68 F).

• Kherson: Showers with occasional thunderstorms forecast May 25-30. Cloudy with no significant precipitation May 31. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-25 C (72-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-17 C (55-63 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Showers with occasional thunderstorms forecast May 25-30. Cloudy with no significant precipitation May 31. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-25 C (72-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-17 C (55-63 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast May 25-27 and May 30-31. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 28-29. Maximum daytime temperatures 21-25 C (70-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 11-14 C (52-57 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rainfall forecast May 25-27 and May 29-31. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 28. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-26 C (73-79 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 10-15 C (50-59 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast May 25-29 and May 31. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 30. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-28 C (72-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 15-17 C (59-63 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of May 25, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following warnings across areas bordering Ukraine:

• Orange rain warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Krasnodar Kray and Crimea.

• Orange storm and flood warnings: Krasnodar Kray.

• Yellow rain warnings: Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Belogorod, Bryansk. Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts, as well as Crimea and Krasnodar Kray.

• Yellow forest fire warnings: Belogorod, Bryansk. Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray.

• Yellow rising water level warnings: Rostov Oblast.

• Yellow fog warnings: Crimea.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports, and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring