Ukraine: Warm temperatures with occasional showers forecast across much of the region through May 25 /update 35

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Relatively warm temperatures with occasional spells of rain are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least May 25. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast in western regions May 18, with little precipitation forecast across the rest of the country. Further light rainfall is expected in southern and western regions May 19 and central, northern, and western regions May 20. Showers and storms are likely in central, eastern, and southern regions May 21 and light rainfall across much of the country with the exception of western regions May 22-23. Temperatures are expected to remain above the average for the time of year across most of Ukraine through at least May 24, with maximums of 21-28 C (70-82 F) forecast in many areas. Slightly cooler temperatures are likely in western regions May 18-19 due to the adverse weather forecast.

Flooding remains a concern across parts of northern and central Ukraine due to fluctuating river levels caused by recent precipitation and snow melt. The peak of the spring flood season has passed and water levels in most river basins are starting to decline; however, around 700 houses remain submerged by floodwaters across parts of Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Roads connecting around 26 settlements in Chernihiv Oblast remain disrupted by flooding, and thousands of hectares of agricultural land have also been flooded.

As of May 18, the Ukraine Hydrometeorological Center is maintaining red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) hydrological warnings for the middle Dnieper Basin in Cherkasy Oblast and orange hydrological warnings for the upper Dnieper and Desna basins in Chernihiv Oblast, the middle Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Poltava oblasts, and the lower Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhizhia oblasts. Yellow hydrological warnings are in place for the middle Dnieper and Desna basins in Kyiv Oblast. Due to the persistent warm weather, extreme forest fire risk warnings have been issued across most of the country as of May 18, with the exception of western regions where rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 18-20. Showers forecast May 21-24, with thunderstorms possible May 21. Maximum daytime temperatures of 21-26 C (70-79 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 9-16 C (42-61 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 18-20. Showers forecast May 21-24, with thunderstorms possible May 21. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-27 C (66-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 11-16 C (52-61 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 18-20. Showers forecast May 21-24, with thunderstorms possible May 21 and May 24. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-27 C (68-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 11-16 C (52-61 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 18-20. Showers forecast May 21-24, with thunderstorms possible May 21 and May 24. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-24 C (66-75 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-18 C (57-64 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 18 and May 20. Showers forecast May 19 and May 21-24, with thunderstorms possible May 21 and May 24. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-28 C (73-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-17 C (54-63 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 18-20. Showers forecast May 21-24, with thunderstorms possible May 21 and May 24. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-27 C (72-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-16 C (54-61 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast May 18 and May 20-24. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 19. Maximum daytime temperatures 21-26 C (70-79 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 11-14 C (52-57 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rainfall forecast May 18 and May 20-23. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 19 and May 24. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-26 C (73-79 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 11-14 C (52-57 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 18-20 and May 23. Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast May 21-22 and May 24. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-27 C (72-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-16 C (57-61 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of May 18, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow forest fire warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts. Yellow wind warnings are in place for Crimea and Krasnodar Kray and yellow water level warnings for parts of Rostov Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports, and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring