14 Jun 2023 | 10:56 AM UTC
Afghanistan: Adverse weather forecast across eastern and northeastern regions through at least June 16
Severe weather forecast across eastern and northeastern Afghanistan through June 16. Possible transport, business, and utility disruptions.
Event
Severe weather is forecast across parts of eastern and northeastern Afghanistan through at least June 16. As of June 14, the Afghanistan Meteorological Department warned of heavy rain, thunderstorms, strong winds, and possible flash flooding in parts of Badakhshan, Baghlan, Ghazni, Kabul, Kapisa, Khost, Kunar, Laghman, Logar, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktia, Paktika, Panjsher, Parwan, Takhar, and Wardak provinces June 14-15. Rainfall totals of 1-2.5 cm (0.4-1 inches) are forecast in the affected area. The most severe weather is expected in parts of central and western Khost, northern Kunar, southern Nuristan, far southern Paktia, and eastern Paktika provinces, where red warnings are in place. Orange and yellow warnings have been issued across the rest of the affected area. Officials could update and extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.
Floods and storms have led to damage and casualties across parts of central, eastern, and northeastern Afghanistan over recent days. As of June 13, authorities have reported six fatalities and eight others injured across Badakhshan, Ghor, Kunar, Nuristan, Paktia, Parwan, and Takhar provinces. Around 30 homes and several roads and bridges have been damaged across the affected areas. Further heavy downpours will likely trigger additional flooding, especially in areas where the ground is already saturated by previous heavy rainfall.
Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.
Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.
Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.
Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in affected areas.
Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
