India: Authorities likely to maintain heightened security across Manipur State through at least early July /update 6

Event

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture across Manipur State through at least early July in response to several incidents of violence between tribal and non-tribal communities that have occurred since May 3. The violence has left over 90 people killed, tens of thousands of civilians impacted, and 2,000 residences damaged. Primarily affected districts include Bishnupur, Churachandpur, Imphal East, Imphal West, Jiribam, Kakching, Kangpokpi, Pherzawl, Tengnoupal, and Thoubal.

In recent days, reports of renewed arson, vandalism, and other forms of violence have occurred in several areas. As of June 6, officials have extended the suspension of mobile and regular internet services through June 10. While public gathering restrictions remain active in several areas, officials have relaxed curfew hours in some regions. The government may extend the duration or expand the existing measures to encompass additional areas depending on the severity of the perceived threat.

Although organizers did not immediately disclose plans for such gatherings, several activist groups may defy gathering bans and stage additional demonstrations over the coming days. Typical tactics include sit-in demonstrations, street marches, and disruptive roadblocks along interstate highways. Potential gathering sites are residences of local politicians, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares.

Associated localized transport and business disruptions are likely near larger rallies. Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, batons, and tear gas, to disperse any protests that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, attacks, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings cannot be ruled out.

Context

On May 3, significant clashes first broke out in Churachandpur District during a rally by the All Tribal Students' Union of Manipur (ATSUM) as a part of statewide demonstrations denouncing the government's proposal to award the nontribal Meitei group - that enjoys a majority in the state - the Scheduled Tribes (ST) designation. The ST designation provides political, educational, and employment privileges.

Advice

Exercise a high degree of caution if operating in or near Manipur State. Keep away from locations where security personnel appear to be deploying. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm business appointments, transport reservations, deliveries, and road status. Do not check out of accommodation before confirming onward travel. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks. Heed instructions from authorities.