Russia: Authorities likely to maintain heightened security in Moscow and other western parts of country over short term despite June 24 agreement /update 5

Event

Authorities will likely maintain some increased security measures in Moscow and other parts of western Russia over at least the short term despite an agreement announced late June 24 that prompted Wagner Group forces to halt their previous northward advance toward Moscow and turn back to their bases. Although "anti-terror" security measures remained in place in the capital June 25, Russian military forces deployed in response to Wagner's operation have reportedly withdrawn from the city's streets. Meanwhile, authorities in Voronezh Oblast have reported that the security-related restrictions and measures previously implemented in the region would be lifted following the "final resolution of the situation" caused by the Wagner operation. In Lipetsk Oblast, authorities had reportedly lifted all restrictions and regular traffic resumed on regional roads as of June 25 after Wagner forces left the region. Additionally, Wagner forces had reportedly left Rostov-on-Don as of June 25, and officials had lifted all transport restrictions in Rostov Oblast.

Despite authorities' work to repair highways damaged during the revolt, transport disruptions remain possible on such routes over the coming days. Officials in Moscow previously announced that June 26 would be a "non-working" day, asking residents to restrict their movements; however, local officials have since clarified that organizations and entrepreneurs in the capital can independently determine how their establishments will function on June 26. Officials in other western regions also announced increased security measures in response to the previous advance of Wagner forces; authorities in Belgorod notably indicated that entry and exit to the region would be tightened.

Officials may enact additional security restrictions, close borders, and restrict telecommunications in response to future developments. Military movements could disrupt road travel, including along primary arterial routes linking southern and northwestern Russia. Should the situation again escalate, officials could also suspend public transportation, including air and rail travel; moreover, any renewal of tensions could result in an increased demand for rail services and flights away from conflict hotspots. Pro- and anti-government demonstrations remain possible in the coming days in major urban centers; some minor gatherings were reported in Rostov-on-Don June 24. Security officials will almost certainly deploy to all gatherings. The threat of violence is elevated at anti-government protests.

Context

The recent relaxation of security-related restrictions comes after Wagner Group chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin agreed to halt his forces' northward advance toward Moscow as part of a June 24 agreement reportedly brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The reported deal stipulated that Wagner troops would turn back and return to their bases in Ukraine in exchange for guarantees of their security and freedom from prosecution; moreover, Wagner personnel who did not support the rebellion would be offered contracts with the Russian military. Additionally, under the agreement, Prigozhin would move to Belarus, the criminal case against him for armed mutiny would be closed, and he would, at least ostensibly, remain free from further Russian prosecution.

By late on June 24, Wagner-aligned forces had reportedly advanced northward to within 200 km (124 miles) of Moscow after having been confirmed to be in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, and Lipetsk Oblast. Road closures were reported along the M4 highway between Moscow and Rostov-on-Don.

Despite the reported deal, tensions will almost certainly remain high in western Russia over the coming days. Armed clashes between Wagner Group forces and troops aligned with the central government, including Chechen forces reportedly deployed in Rostov-on-Don, cannot be ruled out, particularly if some Wagner forces ignore Prigozhin's orders to turn back. Russian security agencies may still conduct raids against Wagner offices in major cities.

Prigozhin's private military company has deployed thousands of armed mercenaries to fight alongside regular Russian troops on the front lines in Ukraine; the Wagner Group's forces have seen some of the fiercest combat in the conflict. However, the Russian oligarch has increasingly been at odds with the Kremlin and the nation's military establishment, often accusing the government in Moscow of refusing to provide his fighters with the ammunition or other supplies they need.

The dispute spiked on June 23 when Prigozhin claimed that Russian military units had launched a missile attack against a base used by Wagner Group forces in Ukraine, resulting in numerous casualties; the Ministry of Defense in Moscow asserted that the claim was false. Prigozhin subsequently made a series of statements calling for the removal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and calling on the regular Russian forces to join his side.

While the withdrawal of Wagner Group personnel from western Russia marks an apparent de-escalation of the crisis, the march toward Moscow marks one of the most significant challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority since he took office. Prigozhin did not immediately comment on whether Moscow had acceded to his demand to remove Shoigu from his position. However, Putin's regime will likely be keen to show continued strength and stability in the face of the major crisis presented by Prigozhin's actions.

Advice

If operating in western Russia, particularly in major cities, exercise heightened vigilance. Review and update contingency plans. Strictly heed the instructions of local authorities. Avoid all locations where large numbers of security personnel appear to be deploying. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm all flights before departure. Prepare for disruptions to available transportation services.