Russia: Heightened security is likely across western Russia, including Moscow, through at least June 25 /update 2

Event

Heightened security is likely across western Russia, including Moscow, through at least June 25 in response to a threat from the Wagner Group led by businessman Yevgeniy Prigozhin.

A counter-terrorist operation regime has been implemented in the Moscow and Voronezh regions. Major gatherings in these areas have been canceled. In Moscow, federal forces have deployed to secure government buildings, critical infrastructure, and transportation hubs; security is particularly tight near the Ministry of Defense on Frunzenskaya Embankment, as well as the Kremlin and State Duma. Roadblocks have been erected at strategic points in the capital. Officials have also warned against using the M4 highway. Officials in several other western regions have announced increased security measures in response to developments. Authorities in Belgorod have indicated that entry and exit to the region will be tightened.

President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation early June 24. Putin announced that the country is facing an attempted armed mutiny after Wagner forces had gained control of Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia, including military and administration buildings, as of the morning of June 24.

PMC Wagner Group forces have reportedly shot down at least two Russian military helicopters that allegedly fired at their convoys during their transit through Rostov Oblast. A military oil depot has reportedly been attacked in Voronezh. There have been no additional reports of clashes between Wagner and conventional Russian security forces. Wagner forces are confirmed to be in Rostov-on-Don and surrounding areas. There are increasing numbers of reports of Wagner columns moving further north, including toward Voronezh.

Tensions will almost certainly remain high over the coming days as the situation evolves. Armed clashes between Wagner Group forces and federal troops cannot be ruled out, particularly if Wagner forces are confirmed to be moving northwards or if they ignore orders to stand down. Russian security agencies could conduct raids against Wagner offices in major cities.

Officials may enact additional restrictions, close borders, and restrict telecommunications in response to developments. Military movements could disrupt road travel, including along primary arterial routes linking southern and northwestern Russia. Should the situation escalate officials could also suspend public transportation, including air and rail travel. Pro- and anti-government protests remain possible in the coming hours in main urban centers. Security officials will almost certainly deploy to all gatherings. The threat of violence is elevated at anti-government protests.

Context

Prigozhin's private military company has deployed thousands of armed mercenaries to fight alongside Russian federal troops on the front lines in Moscow's war in Ukraine; the Wagner Group's forces have seen some of the fiercest combat in the conflict. However, the Russian oligarch has increasingly been at odds with the Kremlin and the nation's military establishment, often accusing the government in Moscow of refusing to provide his fighters with the ammunition or other supplies they need. The dispute spiked on June 23 when Prigozhin claimed that Russian federal military units had launched a missile attack against a base used by Wagner Group forces in Ukraine, resulting in numerous casualties; the Ministry of Defense in Moscow asserts the claim is false. Prigozhin allegedly subsequently made a series of statements promising to "put a stop to" Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and calling on the Russian Guard to join his side. The FSB has opened a criminal case against the businessman, accusing him of inciting armed rebellion.

Advice

If operating in western Russia, particularly in major cities, limit outdoor movements until the situation becomes clearer. Shelter in place if operating in areas between Voronezh and Rostov. Strictly heed the instructions of local authorities. Avoid all locations where large numbers of security personnel appear to be deploying. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.