Russia: Increased security measures eased in Moscow and western regions as of June 27 following withdrawal of Wagner forces /update 6

Event

As of June 27, authorities have lifted counterterrorism regimes imposed in Moscow, Moscow Oblast, and Voronezh Oblast. The regimes were imposed on June 24 after the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, entered the Rostov and Voronezh oblasts and advanced toward Moscow. They halted their advance late June 24 after Prigozhin reportedly reached a deal with Russian authorities brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Russian military forces deployed in response to Wagner's operation have reportedly withdrawn from the streets of Moscow. Authorities in Voronezh and Lipetsk oblasts previously reported that the security-related restrictions and measures implemented in response to Wagner's operation have also been lifted. Additionally, authorities have reopened bridges spanning the Oka River in Moscow Oblast to traffic, including those on the M4 "Don," M5 "Ural," and M2 "Crimea" highways.

Despite authorities' work to repair highways damaged during the revolt, transport disruptions remain possible on such routes over the coming days. Officials in other western regions also announced increased security measures in response to the previous advance of Wagner forces; authorities in Belgorod notably indicated that entry and exit to the region would be tightened. It is likely that these measures will also be lifted; however, lingering security-related disruptions are possible.

Officials may enact additional security restrictions, close borders, and restrict telecommunications in response to future developments. Military movements could disrupt road travel, including along primary arterial routes linking southern and northwestern Russia. Should the situation again escalate, officials could also suspend public transportation, including air and rail travel; moreover, any renewal of tensions could result in an increased demand for rail services and flights away from conflict hotspots. Pro- and anti-government demonstrations remain possible in the coming days in major urban centers; some minor gatherings were reported in Rostov-on-Don on June 24. Security officials will almost certainly deploy to all gatherings. The threat of violence is elevated at anti-government protests.

Context

The relaxation of security-related restrictions comes after Prigozhin agreed to halt his forces' northward advance toward Moscow as part of a June 24 agreement reportedly brokered by Lukashenko. The reported deal stipulates the return of Wagner troops to their bases in Ukraine in exchange for guarantees of their security and freedom from prosecution; moreover, Wagner personnel who did not support the rebellion would be offered contracts with the Russian military. Additionally, under the agreement, Prigozhin would move to Belarus, the criminal case against him for armed mutiny would be closed, and he would, at least ostensibly, remain free from further Russian prosecution.

Despite the reported deal, tensions will almost certainly remain high in western Russia over the coming days. Russian security agencies may still conduct raids against Wagner offices in major cities.

Prigozhin's private military company has deployed thousands of armed mercenaries to fight alongside regular Russian troops on the front lines in Ukraine; the Wagner Group's forces have seen some of the fiercest combat in the conflict. However, the Russian oligarch has increasingly been at odds with the Kremlin and the nation's military establishment, often accusing the government in Moscow of refusing to provide his fighters with the ammunition or other supplies they need.

The dispute spiked on June 23 when Prigozhin claimed that Russian military units had launched a missile attack against a base used by Wagner Group forces in Ukraine, resulting in numerous casualties; the Ministry of Defense in Moscow asserted that the claim was false. Prigozhin subsequently made a series of statements calling for the removal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and calling on regular Russian forces to join his side.

By late June 24, Wagner-aligned forces had reportedly advanced northward to within 200 km (124 miles) of Moscow after being confirmed to be in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, and Lipetsk Oblast. Road closures were reported along the M4 Highway between Moscow and Rostov-on-Don.

While the withdrawal of Wagner Group personnel from western Russia marks an apparent de-escalation of the crisis, the march toward Moscow marks one of the most significant challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority since he took office. Prigozhin did not immediately comment on whether Moscow had acceded to his demand to remove Shoigu from his position. However, Putin's regime will likely be keen to show continued strength and stability in the face of the major crisis presented by Prigozhin's actions.

Advice

If operating in western Russia, particularly in major cities, exercise heightened vigilance. Review and update contingency plans. Strictly heed the instructions of local authorities. Avoid all locations where large numbers of security personnel appear to be deploying. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm all flights before departure. Prepare for disruptions to available transportation services.