Russia: Wagner Group chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin reportedly agrees to halt his forces' advance toward Moscow following Belarus-brokered deal June 24 /update 4

Event

Wagner Group chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin has reportedly agreed to halt his forces' advance toward Moscow as of late June 24 following a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Confirming the news initially reported via Lukashenko's office, Prigozhin said that Wagner forces would return to their base camps in Ukraine to avoid bloodshed; Wagner forces have reportedly received security guarantees in return for halting their march toward the Russian capital. In his statement, Prigozhin did not comment on whether Moscow had acceded to his demand to remove Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu from his position. For its part, the Kremlin did not immediately comment on the reported deal or verify that it would permit Wagner forces to fall back. Additional details regarding these developments, including the time frame on which the Wagner troops would retreat and the estimated time at which related heightened security measures, road closures, and other disruptions would be lifted, were not immediately reported.

While the move marks an apparent de-escalation of the crisis, one of the most significant challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority since he took office, heightened security measures will likely remain in place across much of western Russia, including Moscow, over at least the coming hours if not for multiple days ahead.

As of earlier on June 24, Wagner-aligned forces had advanced northward most of the way to Moscow after having confirmed to be in Rostov-on-Don. The governor of Lipetsk also confirmed the presence of Wagner personnel in the region; Lipetsk is located approximately 400 km (249 miles) south of Moscow. Road closures were reported along the M4 highway between Moscow and Rostov-on-Don. Additionally, Latvia had reportedly closed its border with Russia, and Estonia had increased security near its shared border with Russia.

Moreover, Russian authorities had implemented a counterterrorist operation regime in the Moscow and Voronezh regions. Major gatherings in these areas were canceled. In Moscow, federal forces deployed to secure government buildings, critical infrastructure, and transportation hubs, making security particularly tight near the Ministry of Defense on Frunzenskaya Embankment as well as in the vicinity of the Kremlin and State Duma. Authorities erected roadblocks at strategic points in the capital and on approaches to it. Officials in Moscow had announced that June 26 would be a "non-working" day, asking residents to restrict their movements.

Officials in several other western regions also announced increased security measures in response to the previous advance of Wagner forces. Authorities in Belgorod indicated that entry and exit to the region would be tightened. Additionally, officials in Lipetsk urged residents to stay at home and avoid traveling by private or public transport vehicles; public transport services between Lipetsk and Voronezh were reportedly suspended. It was not immediately clear how Prigozhin's late June 24 announcement that he had instructed Wagner forces to turn back would impact these measures over the short term.

Despite the reported deal, tensions will almost certainly remain high in western Russia over the coming days. Armed clashes between Wagner Group forces and federal troops cannot be ruled out, particularly if some Wagner forces ignore Prigozhin's orders to turn back. Russian security agencies may still conduct raids against Wagner offices in major cities.

Officials may enact additional restrictions, close borders, and restrict telecommunications in response to future developments. Military movements could disrupt road travel, including along primary arterial routes linking southern and northwestern Russia. Should the situation again escalate, officials could also suspend public transportation, including air and rail travel; moreover, any renewal of tensions could result in an increased demand for flights away from conflict hotspots. Pro- and anti-government protests remain possible in the coming hours in main urban centers. Some minor gatherings were reported in Rostov-on-Don June 24. Security officials will almost certainly deploy to all gatherings. The threat of violence is elevated at anti-government protests.

Context

Prigozhin's private military company has deployed thousands of armed mercenaries to fight alongside Russian federal troops on the front lines in Moscow's war in Ukraine; the Wagner Group's forces have seen some of the fiercest combat in the conflict. However, the Russian oligarch has increasingly been at odds with the Kremlin and the nation's military establishment, often accusing the government in Moscow of refusing to provide his fighters with the ammunition or other supplies they need. The dispute spiked on June 23 when Prigozhin claimed that Russian federal military units had launched a missile attack against a base used by Wagner Group forces in Ukraine, resulting in numerous casualties; the Ministry of Defense in Moscow asserted that the claim was false. Prigozhin allegedly subsequently made a series of statements promising to "put a stop to" Defense Minister Shoigu and calling on the Russian Guard to join his side. The FSB notably opened a criminal case against the businessman, accusing him of inciting armed rebellion.

Advice

If operating in western Russia, particularly in major cities, exercise heightened vigilance and limit outdoor movements until the situation becomes clearer. Review and update contingency plans. Shelter in place if operating in areas between Lipetsk and Rostov. Strictly heed the instructions of local authorities. Avoid all locations where large numbers of security personnel appear to be deploying. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm all flights before departure. Prepare for disruptions to available transportation services.