Ukraine: Further showers and storms forecast across much of the country through June 29 /update 40

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Dry and warm conditions are expected across much of Ukraine June 22-23, with isolated showers and storms possible in western regions June 22-23 and northern regions June 23. The showers and storms are forecast to spread over most of the country June 24-26 and will linger across eastern, northern, southern, and western regions June 27. Downpours may be heavy at times and storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, hail, and lightning. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in affected areas, and strong winds could cause property damage and power outages. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above the average for the time of year across most of Ukraine over the coming days, with highs ranging from around 25-32 C (77-90 F). A slight cooling of temperatures is expected in western regions from June 24 and across much of the rest of the country from June 25-26.

Disruptions are ongoing across parts of Kherson Oblast and surrounding areas as of June 22 following the apparent intentional destruction of the Kakhovka Dam June 6. The large volume of water discharged from the dam's reservoir caused widespread flooding along the banks of the lower Dnieper River, flooding dozens of towns and villages. Authorities reported at least ten fatalities associated with the flooding, 20 others injured, and dozens missing. Floodwaters have largely receded as of June 22; however, around 7,000 people remain displaced across Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts and hundreds of homes remain flooded. The dam's destruction has also affected around 700,000 people who relied on the reservoir for access to drinking water; disruptions are likely to be ongoing across the affected area for a considerable time. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center is maintaining red hydrological warnings (the highest level on a four-tier scale) for the lower Dnieper sub-basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Orange hydrological warnings have also been issued for the Dniester River basin in parts of Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv oblasts due to persistent precipitation in the region. Red fire hazard warnings (the lowest of two warning levels) have been issued across parts of central, eastern, northeastern, and southern Ukraine. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation June 22. Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 23-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-30 C (72-86 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 13-19 C (55-66 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation June 22-23 and June 28. Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 24-27. Maximum daytime temperatures 21-29 C (70-84 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-21 C (54-70 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation June 22-23 and June 25. Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 24 and June 26-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-30 C (73-86 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-21 C (55-70 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation June 22-23 and June 25. Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 24 and June 26-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-26 C (73-79 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 16-23 C (61-73 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation June 22-26. Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 26-31 C (79-88 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 16-20 C (61-68 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation June 22-26. Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-31 C (72-88 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-20 C (57-68 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Showers forecast June 22-23 and June 25-28. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation June 24. Maximum daytime temperatures 21-28 C (70-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 15-18 C (59-64 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation June 22 and June 24. Showers forecast June 23 and June 25-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-29 C (73-84 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-17 C (57-63 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation June 22-25 and June 27-28. Light rainfall forecast June 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 25-32 C (77-90 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 12-19 C (54-66 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain southerly into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of June 22, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow thunderstorm warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) for Krasnodar Kray, yellow wind warnings for parts of Crimea, and yellow forest fire warnings for Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts. Officials could update and extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports, and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Conditions are likely to become more conducive for large-scale military operations during the summer months. After the muddy conditions caused by thawing snow and spring rains have eased, the harder ground will make troop movements easier. Warmer temperatures will also mean troops are able to stay out in the field for more extended periods of time. Clearer skies provide better visibility for aerial reconnaissance; however, increased foliage also improves the ability to conceal positions. Although conditions will generally be more favorable, periods of heavy rainfall are still possible during summer storms, especially during early summer, bringing wet and stormy conditions that may hamper military operations. Other environmental threats such as forest fires and extreme temperatures could also impact operations during the warmer months of the year.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring