Ukraine: Localized showers and storms forecast across much of the country through July 6 /update 41

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Sporadic showers and storms are forecast to impact much of Ukraine through July 6. Widespread downpours and thunderstorms across much of the country June 29 are expected to give way to more isolated showers and storms across Ukraine June 30. Further isolated showers and storms are expected in western regions July 1, central, northern, and western regions July 2, and central, eastern, and southern regions July 3. Light rainfall and localized storms may linger in eastern, southern, and western regions July 4. Temperatures are expected to slowly rise over the coming days from maximums of around 19-23 C (66-73 F) June 29 to around 25-32 C (77-90 F) by July 4, with the warmest temperatures likely in southern regions.

As of June 29, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center is maintaining the highest level warnings for falling water levels in the lower Dnieper sub-basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions following the apparent intentional destruction of the Kakhovka Dam June 6. Red fire hazard warnings (the lowest of two warning levels) have been issued across parts of central, northern, southern, and western Ukraine June 30-July 2. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 29-30 and July 3. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation July 1-2 and July 4-5. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-29 C (68-84 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 13-19 C (55-66 F).

• Luhansk: Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 29-30 and July 3-5. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation July 1-2. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-29 C (66-84 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-19 C (57-66 F).

• Donetsk: Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 29-30 and July 3-4. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation July 1-2 and July 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-30 C (66-86 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-19 C (55-66 F).

• Mariupol: Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 29-30 and July 3-4. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation July 1-2 and July 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-32 C (66-90 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 17-24 C (63-75 F).

• Kherson: Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 29-30 and July 3-4. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation July 1-2 and sunny and dry July 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 21-33 C (70-91 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 15-22 C (59-72 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Showers with possible thunderstorms forecast June 29-30 and July 3-4. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation July 1-2 and sunny and dry July 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-32 C (68-90 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-22 C (57-72 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast June 29-July 3. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation July 4-5. Maximum daytime temperatures 20-27 C (68-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-18 C (57-64 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rainfall forecast June 29-July 3. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation July 4-5. Maximum daytime temperatures 21-27 C (70-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-17 C (55-63 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light rainfall forecast June 29-July 1. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation July 2-5. Maximum daytime temperatures 25-34 C (77-93 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-22 C (57-72 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain southerly into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of June 29, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following weather warnings across areas bordering Ukraine:

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Across Cimea.

• Orange storm warnings: Krasnodar Kray.

• Yellow heavy rainfall warnings: Krasnodar Kray and Rostov Oblast.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray and Crimea.

• Yellow flood warnings: Krasnodar Kray.

• Yellow hail warnings: Parts of Crimea.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Across Crimea.

• Yellow forest fire warnings: Krasnodar Kray and Rostov Oblast.

• Yellow fog warnings: Kursk Oblast.

Officials could update and extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports, and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Conditions are likely to become more conducive for large-scale military operations during the summer months. After the muddy conditions caused by thawing snow and spring rains have eased, the harder ground will make troop movements easier. Warmer temperatures will also mean troops are able to stay out in the field for more extended periods of time. Clearer skies provide better visibility for aerial reconnaissance; however, increased foliage also improves the ability to conceal positions. Although conditions will generally be more favorable, periods of heavy rainfall are still possible during summer storms, especially during early summer, bringing wet and stormy conditions that may hamper military operations. Other environmental threats such as forest fires and extreme temperatures could also impact operations during the warmer months of the year.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring