India: Authorities likely to continue heightened security measures across Manipur State through at least mid-August /update 8

Event

Authorities will almost certainly maintain a heightened security posture across Manipur State through at least mid-August in response to several incidents of violence between tribal and non-tribal communities since May 3. The violence has left over 100 people dead, tens of thousands of civilians impacted, and at least 2,000 residences damaged. Primarily affected districts include Bishnupur, Churachandpur, Imphal East, Imphal West, Jiribam, Kakching, Kangpokpi, Pherzawl, Tengnoupal, and Thoubal. Reports of renewed arson, vandalism, and other forms of violence have occurred in several areas. Previous high-profile attacks have targeted the residences, offices, or vehicles of political leaders and security officials.

Effective July 25, officials have partially restored regular internet services in several areas but continue to restrict mobile internet operations in Manipur; authorities have repeatedly extended the measures depending on the severity of the perceived threat since May 3. While public gathering restrictions remain active in affected areas - including the capital city Imphal - relaxations apply for at least 12 hours from 05:00 daily in most districts. Essential public and emergency services remain operational. The government may extend the duration or expand the existing measures to encompass additional areas if significant violence occurs.

In recent days, demonstrations have escalated over the release of a video recording of a sexual assault incident that occurred on May 4; organizers seek to demand the arrest of all the perpetrators involved in the incident, in addition to other concessions. Other related protests have sporadically occurred in Manipur. Although activists have not announced plans for such gatherings, additional demonstrations of varying types are likely over the coming weeks. Typical tactics include sit-ins, shutdown strikes, street marches, and disruptive roadblocks along interstate highways like National Highway 2. Potential gathering sites are residences of local politicians, security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares.

Officials have deployed nearly 40,000 security personnel across the state. Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, batons, and tear gas, to disperse any protests that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, attacks, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings cannot be ruled out. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are likely.

Context

On May 3, significant clashes first broke out in Churachandpur District during a rally by the All Tribal Students' Union of Manipur (ATSUM) as a part of statewide demonstrations denouncing the government's proposal to award the nontribal Meitei group - that enjoys a majority in the state - the Scheduled Tribes (ST) designation. The ST designation provides political, educational, and employment privileges.

Advice

Exercise a high degree of caution if operating in or near Manipur State. Keep away from locations where security personnel appear to be deploying. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm business appointments, transport reservations, deliveries, and road status. Do not check out of accommodation before confirming onward travel. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks. Heed instructions from authorities.