Mozambique: Militant threat likely to remain elevated in northern provinces in the coming months as of July 5 /update 3

Event

As of June 5, the militant threat in the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa, will likely remain elevated in the coming months. Attacks by the Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ) Islamist militant group on military and civilian targets, including mining sites, have continued through mid-2023 and are likely to persist throughout the rest of the year. Militant attacks in Niassa and Nampula have subsided in the past few months, possibly due to poor weather conditions in March and the month of Ramadan, which ended in April. Militant activity is now reportedly concentrated in the Macomia and Mocimboa da Praia districts, with Mozambican and foreign military forces undertaking a joint counterinsurgency operation in the area as of early July.

Violence could resume at short notice as the region settles into its dry season (through November). Authorities will undoubtedly maintain an increased security posture in the affected areas of Cabo Delgado and may erect roadblocks or restrict access on some roads. Security-related operations could result in localized ground transport disruptions. Increased vehicle checks are also likely on roads leading to and from larger urban centers. The military presence will continue for the duration of the threat.

Context

Mozambique's northern provinces, particularly Cabo Delgado Province, have been subject to a continuous Islamist insurgency since October 2017; in 2022, attacks began spreading to the neighboring Nampula and Niassa provinces. The security situation remains extremely uncertain despite the alleged return of some 300,000 displaced people. As of July 2023, the insurgency has reportedly killed around 6,700 people and displaced 950,000 more since its inception.

The attacks are linked to militants from Ansar al-Sunna, also known as Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ), and appear to have been originally motivated by an international Islamist agenda. ASWJ has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), which has reportedly provided weapons, funding, and training to the militants. Recent developments, however, suggest that the insurgency could also be socio-economically motivated, with ASWJ claiming to defend the local rural population against the Mozambique Defense Armed Forces (FADM) and their allies. It is likely linked to Cabo Delgado's perceived "resource curse", whereby despite abundant natural fossil resources, the local population remains impoverished and does not reap the benefits of their exploitation. The insurgency could, therefore, also be an attempt at seizing control of valuable mines and drilling sites.

This has raised concerns that the violence could threaten economically significant ore, oil, and gas mining compounds in Cabo Delgado. Mozambique successfully exported its first shipment of liquified natural gas out of Cabo Delgado in November 2022, and it is possible that further shipments could leave Cabo Delgado from the northern port of Palma as early as 2023 should its reconstruction proceed uninterrupted. The discovery of additional graphite and gemstone deposits, such as rubies and tourmalines, will likely increase the appeal for foreign investors, and increase potential targets. Assaults against mining operations have occasionally occurred: the latest attack threatening foreigners occurred in February 2023 in the village of Nairoto in Cado Delgado Province, prompting the precautionary evacuation of personnel from the nearby mining camp of Nairoto Resources Limitada.

ASWJ's modus operandi does not typically threaten foreign nationals, though because of the upsurge in natural resource exploitation, the risk of attacks and kidnappings remains elevated. ASWJ typically attacks local militias, security forces, and remote towns through road ambushes and armed assaults. Militants operate in relatively autonomous cells, and their self-reliance contributes to the difficulty the government has had in tracking down and identifying their support networks. Insurgents have now proven capable of gaining and retaining control of small villages. Recent developments suggest ASWJ is actively engaging in a large-scale recruitment campaign dubbed "hearts and minds" amongst rural populations. Reports also suggest the group is growing larger, with new cells reportedly located near the deep-sea port of Pemba.

The Mozambican armed forces, the FADM, have so far proven unsuccessful in preventing the growth of militant cells. The inclusion of local militias in late 2022 has sparked severe disagreements between the militias and armed forces, and increased tensions despite them sharing a common adversary in ASWJ. And while military progress has been made, repeated human rights abuses and the killing of civilians have reportedly turned local populations against the FADM. The improvement of the situation is likely largely attributable to foreign assistance. This began with the deployment of the SAMIM forces from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in July 2021, and the additional support of the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) in December 2022. The Namibian government, which currently occupies the rotating chairmanship of the SADC Defence committee, has reaffirmed its support for SAMIM - without giving any indication of an end to the intervention. The United States has also been providing training for the FADM.

Various foreign governments are maintaining travel advisories forbidding travel to Cabo Delgado and restricting travel in certain areas of Niassa and Nampula.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Cabo Delgado until government forces manage to stabilize the security landscape. Proceed with extreme caution when traveling in the Niassa and Nampula provinces. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Liaise with trusted security partners for further information. Travel in convoy after a full security review of the route and avoid all travel after dark. Review and update contingency plans. Carry personal identification documents. Heed all security personnel instructions.