Pakistan: Authorities likely to increase security nationwide through late July during Muharram religious holiday observance

Event

Authorities will likely increase security across Pakistan through late July as a precaution during the observance of the Muharram religious holiday. The observance will begin either July 18 or 19, depending on the local lunar sighting. Additionally, Shi'a Muslims across Pakistan will commemorate the two-day holiday of Ashura, the 10th day of Muharram, which will begin either on July 27 or July 28. Areas with significant Shi'a populations will host religious processions and other commemorations. Such processions typically follow traditional routes to and from Shi'a imambargahs (places of worship) and often pass through crowded commercial areas. Larger processions could prompt localized traffic and business disruptions.

Security will likely be particularly tight near imambargahs and Shi'a religious procession routes. Authorities will implement public gathering restrictions and other measures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with the exception of Malakand Division. In Punjab Province, an estimated 110,000 security personnel will be deployed. Authorities plan to conduct enhanced checks, surveillance, and other similar measures nationwide and may implement additional restrictions, such as telecommunication curbs, depending on the severity of any perceived threats. Bombings, assassinations of political and religious figures, sectarian clashes between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims, and riots could occur through late July. While violence is possible in many areas, major cities such as Karachi, Hyderabad, Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta, Islamabad, and Rawalpindi are potential flashpoints.

Context

Muharram is the first month of the lunar Islamic Hijrah calendar, and Ashura is a national holiday observed by both Sunni and Shi'a Muslims. Many Sunnis fast and celebrate the day as a particularly auspicious time based on various Quranic verses; however, it is much more important to Shi'a Muslims. Theological divides, the perceived historical persecution of Shi'a in Pakistan, and the spread of Sunni sectarian fundamentalism have contributed to significant sectarian tensions that often peak ahead of Ashura.

Ashura commemorates the death of Imam Hussein, Muhammad's grandson, at the Battle of Karbala in Iraq in 680 CE (61 AH). His death eventually led to the schism between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims. Shi'a Muslims hold marches and re-enact Hussein's death; followers consider him to have been the rightful heir to the Caliphate during his lifetime.

Advice

Adhere to local customs and avoid sensitive topics of discussion, including religious or political issues. Abide by national health and safety measures. Confirm all business appointments and travel arrangements. Drive with caution and allow additional time to reach destinations; traffic fatalities increase sharply during this high-travel period. Liaise with trusted contacts for further updates and guidance. In areas with elevated security threats, avoid large gatherings and exercise caution around potential terrorist targets, such as transport hubs, touristic venues, religious sites, and high-profile urban centers. If clashes break out nearby, leave the area immediately, and seek shelter in a secure building. Heed all official transport and security advisories.