Philippine Sea: Super Typhoon Doksuri tracking northwestward east of the Philippines as of early July 25 /update 3

Event

Super Typhoon Doksuri (known in the Philippines as Egay) has intensified and is tracking northwestward in the Philippine Sea east of the Philippines early July 25. As of 11:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 517 km (321 miles) northeast of Manila, Philippines. Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a typhoon and make a close approach to the Babuyan Islands, Cagayan Province, Philippines early July 26. Doksuri is forecast to weaken slightly after passing the islands and entering the South China Sea, though maintaining typhoon conditions, before passing south of Taiwan early July 27. The system will likely weaken further and make landfall as a typhoon over Fujian Province in mainland China early July 28 before slowly turning to track northwards across Jiangxi and eastern Hubei provinces through July 29 and dissipating over far southeastern Henan Province early July 30. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of July 25, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued the following warnings:

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 4: northeastern mainland Cagayan Province

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3: Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern mainland Cagayan, northeastern Isabela, and northern Apayao provinces.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2: Batanes, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, northern Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, northern Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and northern and central Aurora provinces.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1: across the rest of northern and central Philippines.

Rainfall totals of more than 20 cm (8 inches) are forecast in northern mainland Cagayan, including Babuyan Islands, Batanes, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur provinces, with lesser amounts of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) likely in northern La Union and western Kalinga provinces through early July 26. After which, rainfall totals of more than 20 cm (8 inches) are forecast in Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and the northern portions of Abra and Ilocos Sur provinces, with lesser amounts of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) likely in Batanes, northwestern mainland Cagayan, northern Apayao, and the rest of Abra and Ilocos Sur provinces through early July 27.

Storm surge of more than 3 meters (10 feet) is forecast in Batanes, Cagayan, including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and Ilocos Norte provinces; flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas is possible. An Extreme General Flood Advisory (second-highest level on a four-tier scale) is in place for the Bicol Region while Severe General Flood Advisories have been issued for Luzon and the Western Visayas Region.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued strong wind advisories across Hsinchu, Keelung, New Taipei, and Taoyuan cities and Hsinchu, Kinmen, Pingtung, and Taitung counties through at least early July 27.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a yellow (second lowest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Authorities have evacuated 348 people across the Western Visayas Region and 51 people in Catanduanes Province. Officials have also advised residents in high-risk areas of Camarines Sur Province to evacuate. Sea travel across northern and central Philippines is suspended; more than 3,100 passengers in Bicol, Calabarzon, Eastern Visayas, and Mimaropa regions are stranded. Airlines have canceled flights connecting Manila with Busuanga, Coron, El Nido, Laoag, and Romblon July 25. Authorities have suspended classes in parts of northern and central Philippines July 25.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau