Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Doksuri tracking northwestward east of the Philippines as of July 23 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Doksuri (known in the Philippines as Egay) is tracking northwestward in the Philippine Sea east of the Philippines July 23. As of 11:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 859 km (534 miles) east of Manila. Forecast models indicate that the storm will continue tracking northwestward and intensify into a typhoon through July 23 before making an initial landfall over southern Taiwan July 27. Doksuri is forecast to weaken slightly following landfall, though maintaining typhoon conditions. The system will continue into the Taiwan Strait and make a second landfall over Fujian Province in mainland China July 28. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of July 23, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a General Flood Advisory for parts of southern Luzon, eastern Visayas, and northeastern Mindanao. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast across parts of Catanduanes Province July 23 and Albay, Cagayan, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and eastern Isabela provinces and the Polilio Islands July 24. Rainfall totals in Catanduanes Province could reach 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) July 24. Officials also issued a Gale Warning advising of rough to very rough sea conditions along the eastern coasts of southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)