Philippine Sea: Typhoon Doksuri tracking west-northwestward northeast of the Philippines as of early July 26 /update 5

Event

Typhoon Doksuri (known in the Philippines as Egay) is tracking west-northwestward in the western Philippine Sea northeast of the Philippines early July 26. As of 11:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 490 km (304 miles) north-northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will track northwestward through July 26 across the Luzon Strait and away from Babuyan Islands, where it made landfall earlier the same day. Doksuri is forecast to weaken slightly after passing the islands and entering the South China Sea, though maintaining typhoon conditions, before passing southwest of Taiwan July 27. The system will likely weaken further and make landfall as a typhoon over southeastern Fujian Province in mainland China early July 28 before turning to track northward across Jiangxi and eastern Hubei provinces July 29 and dissipating over northwestern Anhui province July 30. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of July 26, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued the following warnings:

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 4: The northern portion of Cagayan, including Bubayan Islands, and northern Apayao.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3: Batanes, the rest of Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte provinces, as well as northern parts of Kalinga, Abra, and Ilocos Sur provinces.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2: Isabela, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, the rest of Kalinga, Abra, and Ilocos Sur provinces, and the northern and western parts of Pangasinan.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1: Across much of the rest of Luzon.

Rainfall totals of more than 20 cm (8 inches) are forecast in northwestern Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands) and northern Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur provinces through late July 26. Lesser amounts of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are likely in Batanes, northeastern and central Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, western Kalinga and Mountain Province, as well as Benguet and La Union, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) in the rest of Cagayan, Kalinga, and Mountain Province, western Ifugao and Nueva Vizcaya, as well as Pangasinan, and Zambales. Storm surge of more than 3 meters (10 feet) is forecast in Cagayan and Ilocos Norte provinces; flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas is possible.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued a typhoon warning for Taitung and Pingtung counties and Tainan and Kaohsiung cities on land and for most coastal waters. Red torrential rain warnings (the third highest level on a four-tier scale) are in effect for Hualien and Taitung counties, as well as orange torrential rain warning for mountainous areas of Yilan and Pingtung counties. Yellow heavy rain warnings are in place for the rest of eastern Taiwan. Officials have also issued onshore strong wind advisories across northern, southern, and most island coastal areas.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning. Rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are likely in coastal areas of southeastern Zhejiang July 26-27, as well as strong winds in the South China Sea. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Disruptions are ongoing across parts of the Philippines July 26 following the system's passage over the northeast. The storm has killed at least one person and injured two others in Calabarzon and Western Visayas regions as of the morning of July 26. Flooding and landslides are also affecting parts of the regions. Authorities have evacuated more than 31,000 people across the Western Visayas Region and also ordered the evacuation of those in northwestern and northeastern Cagayan Province. Power outages are affecting parts of Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Ecija, as well as Abra and Aurora provinces, as of the morning of July 26.

Sea travel across northern and central Philippines is suspended; more than 11,000 people, including passengers in Bicol, Calabarzon, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Mimaropa regions, are stranded as of July 25. Airlines have canceled flights connecting Manila with Basco, Cauayan, Laoag, Masbate, San Jose, and Tuguegarao, as well as between Cebu and Baguio July 26 and early July 27. Authorities have suspended classes in parts of northern and central Philippines July 26.

In Taiwan, authorities announced the cancellations of 18 ferry routes and 127 services, including 14 between Taiwan proper and its outer islands, as well as four between China and Taiwan July 26. Operators have warned that ferry services and flights between mainland Taiwan and Lienchiang County will likely be suspended during the passing of the storm. Authorities have closed some national parks and suspended several outdoor sporting and other recreational events.

In China, officials have called on fishing boats in Fujian Province coastal areas to return to port and the evacuation of residents in potential risk areas before July 26.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau