Philippines: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to deliver State of the Nation Address in Metro Manila July 24; protests likely

Event

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (known as Bongbong) will deliver his second State of the Nation Address (SONA) at the Batasang Pambansa Complex in Quezon City, Metro Manila, July 24. Members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as foreign diplomats, will attend the event.

Authorities will increase security, including deploying around 22,000 personnel, throughout the National Capital Region, especially Quezon City. While officials have not identified any specific security threat for the event, police will almost certainly establish security cordons near the complex; street closures, roadblocks, and traffic diversions are likely, particularly along Commonwealth Avenue and Batasan Road, which lead to the complex.

Civil Unrest
Various civic groups and labor unions will likely call for protests in Metro Manila and other parts of the country to denounce the government leading up to and during the event. The largest rallies will likely occur in Metro Manila, where hundreds may participate in any gathering. While the Philippine police said it would designate specific locations as demonstration sites, activists will probably also gather in other locations. Likely protest venues in Metro Manila include the Commission on Human Rights, Commonwealth Avenue, Bantayog ng mga Bayani Monument, Malacanang Palace, and People Power Monument. Related rallies will probably also occur near government offices, public squares, and parks in other urban centers, such as Cebu and Davao cities. Marcos Jr.'s supporters may organize counterdemonstrations.

Authorities will likely bolster security nearby any protest sites. Localized transport and business disruptions are probable during gatherings, especially if demonstrators block roads near the rally locations. Clashes could occur if police forcibly disperse any rally or if protesters attempt to break through security barriers. Arrests may occur if security forces consider any demonstrator to violate public gathering permit requirements.

Context

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. assumed office as the 17th President of the Philippines June 30, 2022. Marcos Jr. is the son of former president Ferdinand Marcos, who was overthrown in the People Power Revolution in 1986. Despite maintaining a high approval rating, Marcos' administration continues to face criticism from civic groups and activists for alleged human rights violations. Groups have also held protests calling for the Marcos administration to address economic uncertainty and the rising costs of essential commodities.

Advice

Avoid the Batasang Pambansa Complex July 24 and any demonstration sites. Allow additional driving time due to possible traffic disruptions and security checkpoints, especially in Quezon City. Seek updated information on protest sites and associated disruptions, as organizers may not announce rallies in advance. Heed all instructions from security personnel.