Thailand: Heightened security, rallies likely in Bangkok through early August after opposition leader denied prime minister renomination /update 3

Event

Authorities will likely maintain heightened security in Bangkok through early August due to ongoing protests in the aftermath of the general elections. Supporters of Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the opposition Move Forward Progressive Party (MFP), and pro-democracy groups lead most of the demonstrations. Further demonstrations are likely over the coming weeks after parliament voted against Limjaroenrat's renomination for prime minister July 19. Activists from the People’s Council for Thailand Reform plan to demonstrate in front of the Bangkok Art and Culture Centre and at the nearby OneSiam Skywalk from 16:00 July 20.

Possible gathering locations for additional rallies include government buildings like City Hall, Election Commission, Government House, Parliament Complex, and Supreme Court, as well as public squares such as the Democracy Monument, Lumpini Park, Victory Monument, and Ramkhamhaeng University. Popular rally locations also include the Asok, Din Daeng, and Ratchaprasong intersections. Several hundred to a few thousand people could participate in related demonstrations.

Security deployment, cordons, and road closures, typically affect the vicinity of Parliament Complex and potential demonstration sites. Localized transport disruptions may worsen if protesters occupy or march on roads. Clashes between demonstrators and security personnel are possible, especially if activists attempt to bypass security barriers or defy orders to disperse. Mass arrests could occur if protesters become overly disruptive or security forces determine demonstrators violate any public gathering permit requirements. Significant violence could disrupt local business operations.

Context

Thailand continues to experience political instability following the general election held on May 14. Despite winning the most seats in parliament, the MFP has faced various challenges, including internal conflicts among coalition members, conservative opposition to policies, and the suspension of MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat from parliament. Moreover, the prime minister is elected by the 250-member senate, consisting of members appointed by a committee controlled by the Thai military. Pro-democracy activists argue the rule undermines electoral results and helps to maintain the military's political power.

Pita failed to secure the required majority during the first round of voting for the new prime minister July 13. Subsequently, Pita attempted to seek renomination for the prime minister position July 19, but lawmakers agreed to prevent a second parliamentary vote on his candidacy. The decision follows the constitutional court's suspension of Pita from parliament the same day due to alleged shareholding in a media company. The next vote for the new prime minister position is scheduled for July 27. Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai party and its prime minister candidate, Srettha Thavisin, have emerged as the next party likely to form a new government, having won the second-largest number of house seats in the May 14 general election.

Advice

Avoid any protests due to possible clashes. If any violence occur nearby, immediately leave the area and seek shelter at a safe nongovernmental building. Plan for possible localized transport and business disruptions during any demonstrations. Allow additional time for travel and use alternative routes to circumvent rally sites. Remain cooperative if stopped by officials for security checks. Heed all official traffic and security advisories.