Zimbabwe: Increased tensions and security likely throughout campaign period ahead of general elections on August 23

Event

Increased tensions are likely nationwide in Zimbabwe through August ahead of the general elections on August 23. Incumbent President Emerson Mnangagwa of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) is running for a second consecutive mandate. His main adversary is Nelson Chamisa of the Citizen's Coalition for Change (CCC), who narrowly lost the 2018 election against Mnangagwa. Both parties have been holding rallies nationwide since the campaign officially launched in June. Zanu-PF has been actively preventing the CCC from campaigning by banning rallies, especially in rural areas. Although no casualties have been reported as of early July, small skirmishes have led to at least eight CCC party members being arrested.

Political gatherings are likely nationwide ahead of the elections, including in remote and rural areas. Authorities will almost certainly deploy heightened security along key thoroughfares and near government buildings during political rallies. Security forces will likely resort to more stringent measures during opposition rallies. Officials may impose additional restrictive measures, such as temporary curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions, to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest.

Previous elections have consistently featured many incidents of violence, including casualties. Further clashes with security forces, opposing rival activists, and other forms of political violence are possible. Disruptions to urban and intercity road travel, business operations, and telecommunications are likely amid significant bouts of civil unrest or preemptive security operations.

Context

In 2018, Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF narrowly beat Nelson Chamisa after the latter’s legal challenge was dismissed by the Electoral Commission. Opposition supporters staged a day of demonstrations in Harare, and after clashes with police, the military aggressively dispersed groups from the city center, allegedly firing live rounds on crowds. At least six people were killed in the violence, and police subsequently disrupted several other opposition gatherings. In 2023, Zanu-PF’s majority seems even further under threat amidst high-profile corruption scandals, struggling public utilities, and severe political infighting. Independent polling suggests Chamisa's CCC and Mnagagwa's Zanu-PF are neck and neck.

Pre-election periods are usually tense in Zimbabwe. Clashes regularly break out between opposition supporters and security personnel and between opposing political groups during such gatherings. Most violence is usually directed towards opposing supporters, but can occasionally affect bystanders and businesses. Both Zanu-PF and the CCC have proven capable of deadly clashes, and should opposing party members disrupt each other's political rallies, it could likely lead to greater violence.

Advice

Avoid all rallies and protests due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near potential demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Refrain from wearing yellow clothing due to its association with the lead opposition party (CCC). Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Leave immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building if violence erupts.