30 Aug 2023 | 10:04 AM UTC
Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Idalia moving north-northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico early Aug. 30 /update 4
Hurricane Idalia tracking north-northeast in the Gulf of Mexico early Aug. 30. Landfall imminent over Big Bend coast of Florida, US.
Event
Hurricane Idalia has intensified and is tracking north-northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico early Aug. 30. As of 05:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 95 km (60 miles) west of Cedar Key, Florida, US.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall as a category 4 hurricane over the Big Bend coast of Florida in the coming hours. After landfall, the system will likely weaken rapidly into a category 2 hurricane as it tracks northeastward across northern Florida then southern Georgia through the afternoon of Aug. 30 before weakening further into a tropical storm as it crosses southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina through early Aug. 31 before entering the North Atlantic Ocean. Idalia is likely to weaken further as it tracks northeastward then eastwards away from land into Sept. 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of early Aug. 30, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings:
Hurricane Warning: middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
Hurricane Watch: mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound; Edisto Beach to South Santee River
Tropical Storm Warning: Chokoloskee northward to the middle of Longboat Key; west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach; Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Surf City, North Carolina
Storm Surge Warning: Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay; St. Catherine's Sound to South Santee River
Storm Surge Watch: Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour; mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound, Georgia; Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, North Carolina; Neuse and Pamlico rivers, North Carolina
Authorities will likely issue new warnings and update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming hours and days.
The system is forecast to produce rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with locally higher amounts of 30 cm (12 inches), from the Florida Big Bend through central Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Aug. 31. Flash, urban, and moderate river flooding are likely.
Dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. In Florida, the water could reach 3.7-4.9 meters (12-16 feet) from Wakulla and Jefferson counties to Yankeetown, 2.4-3.7 meters (8-12 feet) from Ochlockonee River to Wakulla and Jefferson counties, 2.1-3.4 meters (7-11 feet) from Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, 1.8-2.7 meters (6-9 feet) from Chassahowitzka to Anclote River, and 1.5-2.4 meters (5-8 feet) from Ochlockonee River to Carrabelle. Smaller amounts are forecast across coastal areas of Florida.
Tornadoes are possible across west central and northern Florida into southeastern Georgia early Aug. 31, with the tornado threat shifting toward the coastal Carolinas the afternoon to late Aug. 30. Swells, which are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, are affecting the southwestern coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the north central Gulf coast Aug. 30.
Authorities in Florida have expanded the state of emergency to include 49 out of the state's 67 counties in advance of the storm and federal authorities approved the state's emergency declaration. Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina also declared states of emergency. Evacuation orders and warnings are in place for hundreds of thousands of people across 28 counties in Florida, including mandatory evacuation orders for much of the Gulf Coast from Pinellas to Gulf counties as well as across Flagler and St. Johns counties. Portions of Camden County, Georgia, including Cumberland and Little Cumberland islands, are also under evacuation orders. Authorities have opened at least 50 emergency shelters.
Tampa International Airport (TPA), St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (PIE), Tallahassee International Airport (TLH), and Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) are closed; authorities estimate that Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) will be reopened early Aug. 30, St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (PIE) the afternoon of Aug. 30, and Tampa International Airport (TPA) early Aug. 31. Further flight delays and cancellations are possible as the storm approaches and weather conditions deteriorate. SunRail has suspended train services throughout Central Florida until further notice, while Amtrak has suspended the Auto Train, Silver Star, and Silver Meteor routes and shortened Palmetto routes. The Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority has suspended all transit services until further notice.
The cities of St. Petersburg, Largo, Pinellas Park, and Temple Terrace have closed offices and suspended transport and county services Aug. 29-30. Three Tampa Bay hospitals were evacuated and closed Aug. 28; patients at HCA Florida Trinity West Hospital in New Port Richey, HCA Florida West Tampa Hospital, and HCA Florida Pasadena Hospital were transferred to other facilities as a precaution. Most schools in the affected area are closed over the coming days.
Chevron evacuated three US Gulf of Mexico oil production platforms, while Kinder Morgan shut the Port Manatee, Port Sutton, and Tampaplex terminals and the Central Florida Pipeline System.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
