Lebanon: Further anti-government demonstrations likely through August /update 5

Event

Additional demonstrations and labor strikes remain likely in Lebanon through at least late August amid the country's declining economic, political, and security conditions. Security forces have regularly deployed tear gas during recent demonstrations in Beirut and other cities. Additionally, banks have engaged in periodic strikes to denounce the increase in crime and insecurity. In addition to Beirut, likely protests, sit-ins, and work stoppages will also occur in Sidon, Tripoli, and Tyre.

Demonstrations in response to deteriorating socioeconomic conditions and perceived government mismanagement have been a regular occurrence since 2019. However, activists appear to call for new protests when authorities or banks impose informal capital controls or limit cash withdrawals. In most demonstrations, protesters tend to clash with security forces, engage in rioting, and conduct acts of vandalism against public and private property.

Major rally sites include public squares, government buildings, and city centers. In Beirut, protests will likely focus on the Port of Beirut, the Ministry of Justice, Riad el-Solh Road, Martyrs' Square, and near the government palace. Demonstrators may burn tires and sporadically barricade main roadways, prompting ground travel disruptions. Transport disruptions and strikes could also result in further commercial disruptions. Security forces will almost certainly continue monitoring and responding to all protests and roadblocks. Clashes between security forces and protesters are possible, especially if protesters ignore police orders or are overly disruptive.

Context

Lebanon continues to be mired in its worst crisis since the end of the country's Civil War in 1990. The World Bank has stated that the country's current economic depression is one of the world's worst. The value of the country's currency has dropped by over 90 percent since 2019, with essential goods and services increasingly difficult to access. In addition, hours-long power outages are routine in Beirut and other cities.

Major economic and political reforms will be required to help reverse the crisis, unlock international financial assistance, and address protesters' demands. However, Lebanon's confessional government structure, which distributes political power according to religious sects, has hampered efforts to resolve the crisis. Many anti-government protesters claim the confessional system has contributed to Lebanon's current instability due to the belief that it benefits political elites and encourages a lack of accountability.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts regarding protest sites and maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for localized clashes or other security incidents. Allow significant extra time to reach destinations in city centers in Lebanon until the protests abate. Do not attempt to pass through protesters' roadblocks; wait for authorities to remove them. Be alert for residual debris and sharp objects if driving on previously blocked roads. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement officers. Reconfirm business appointments.