Maldives: Campaigning is underway nationwide ahead of presidential election scheduled Sept. 9

Event

The Republic of Maldives will conduct its presidential election on Sept. 9. The upcoming vote will feature incumbent President Ibrahim Mohammed Solih and seven other opposition candidates. An additional round of voting may occur by Sept. 30 if no candidate secures at least 50 percent of the votes in the first phase. Polling will occur in around 500 stations, including in at least 65 resorts. Results are usually announced on the day of, or after polling. Security forces will be on high alert nationwide amid concerns over possible political and militant violence surrounding the vote. The tightest security is almost certain near voting and campaign sites, which will likely prompt localized traffic disruptions. The government typically declares polling day as a holiday, leading to government office and business closures.

Official campaigning for the election began Aug. 10, and is set to continue nationwide through Sept. 8. Large campaign rallies and parades are likely in Male and other urban centers as the election date draws near, which could prompt significant transport and commercial disruptions. Popular rally venues in Male include the Artificial Beach and Carnival areas. Minor clashes between rival political factions, as well as between party supporters and police, are possible during political rallies and polling. There is a higher potential for violence in Male, Addu, and other towns.

Protests are possible ahead of and after the elections. Political parties could hold demonstrations over perceived electoral irregularities, with any losing opposition parties likely to focus on potential interference by the incumbent President Solih. Popular gathering venues include public grounds and squares and major intersections in central areas of cities; campaigns over contentious foreign policy matters may also trigger gatherings near the Indian High Commission in Male. Localized business and traffic disruptions will probably occur near rally sites. Police typically quell opposition protests with force. Unrest and associated disruptions will likely remain limited to Male and other urban centers and are unlikely to affect the country's tourist resorts or Male's Velana International Airport (MLE).

An extant terror risk prevails due to the presence of Islamist militants, particularly followers of the Islamic State (IS). Since 2016, Maldivian security forces have arrested over 100 IS supporters and claim to have foiled a few terror plots. High-profile attacks by solo actors linked to the IS have resulted in injuries to former President Mohamed Nasheed and current Minister Ali Solih. Small-scale attacks using knives and explosives are possible near election offices, rallies, and political party offices, as well as at transport hubs, crowded markets, and places frequented by foreigners.

Context

The upcoming election will take place amid heightened political tensions since August when the Supreme Court barred former President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom from contesting in the presidential election. Yameen is currently serving a prison sentence over corruption and money laundering during his presidential term. Yameen's Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), other opposition parties, and breakaway factions of the present ruling party have fielded an unprecedented number of candidates to challenge Solih's re-election bid.

Advice

Prepare for increased security - potentially including roadblocks and identification checks - until the end of the elections, especially on polling day. Avoid political party offices, political rallies, polling stations, and government buildings, where political unrest is most likely to occur. If a large mob begins forming, immediately leave the area or seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Use caution near transport hubs, crowded markets, places frequented by expatriates and travelers and other potential miltiant targets. Allow additional time for travel near election events, especially in Male and other urban centers.