31 Aug 2023 | 09:45 AM UTC
North Atlantic: Tropical Storm Idalia moving east-northeastward over North Atlantic Ocean early Aug. 31 /update 6
TS Idalia tracking east-northeast over North Atlantic Ocean early Aug. 31 following landfall over Florida's Big Bend, US, early Aug. 30.
Event
Tropical Storm Idalia is tracking east-northeast over the North Atlantic Ocean early Aug. 31, following landfall over Florida's Big Bend, US, early Aug. 30. As of 05:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 70 km (45 miles) south-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina, US.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly as it tracks generally eastward through Sept. 2 before turning to track northeastward and make a close approach to Bermuda the afternoon of Sept. 3, passing just northwest of the island. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of early Aug. 31, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings:
Tropical Storm Warning: South Santee River northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border; Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
Storm Surge Watch: Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina; Neuse and Pamlico rivers, North Carolina
Authorities will likely issue new warnings and update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming hours and days.
The system is forecast to produce additional rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches), with locally higher amounts of 15 cm (6 inches) across coastal North Carolina through the afternoon of Aug. 31. Flash, urban, and moderate river flooding are likely.
Storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet in North Carolina, and Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo rivers. Smaller amounts are forecast across coastal areas of North Carolina.
Tornadoes are possible across coastal North Carolina through early Aug. 31. Swells, which are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, are likely to affect the southeastern US coast over the coming days.
Authorities in Florida expanded the state of emergency to include 49 out of the state's 67 counties in advance of the storm, and federal authorities approved the state's emergency declaration. Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina also declared states of emergency. Some evacuation orders and warnings have been rescinded, but evacuation orders remain in place for some Gulf Coast counties, from Pasco to Taylor counties. Authorities have implemented a curfew for Madison County, Florida, 20:00-08:00 until further notice. At least two people in Pasco County, Florida, have been killed in separate traffic accidents. Authorities estimate that around 4,000-6,000 houses in Pasco County are damaged.
Tampa International Airport (TPA), St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (PIE), Tallahassee International Airport (TLH), and Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) were closed in advance of the storm; the airports have since reopened and normal operations are likely to resume early Aug. 31. All flights out of Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport (SAV) were canceled Aug. 30, but the airport remains open. Further flight delays and cancellations are possible as the storm approaches and weather conditions deteriorate.
Three Tampa Bay hospitals were evacuated and closed Aug. 28; patients at HCA Florida Trinity West Hospital in New Port Richey, HCA Florida West Tampa Hospital, and HCA Florida Pasadena Hospital were transferred to other facilities as a precaution. Most schools in the affected area are closed over the coming days. As of early Aug. 31, more than 143,000 people across Florida, 112,000 across Georgia, 31,000 across South Carolina, and 20,000 across North Carolina are without power.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
