Philippine Sea: Severe Tropical Storm Khanun tracking east-southeastward away from the Amami Islands, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, as of early Aug. 7 /update 12

Event

Tropical Storm Khanun is tracking east-southeastward in the Philippine Sea, away from the Amami Islands, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, early Aug. 7. As of 12:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 604 km (375 miles) south-southeast of Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it turns to track northwestward and make a close approach to the Osumi Islands in Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, late Aug. 8 before strengthening further into a typhoon and making another close approach to Koshikijima Islands early Aug. 9, passing west of the islands. The storm is forecast to make landfall over Goto Islands, Nagasaki Prefecture, late Aug. 9 before passing west of Tsushima Island early Aug. 10. Khanun will then continue north-northwestward and make another landfall over South Korea's South Gyeongsang Province early Aug. 10 before weakening as it tracks across along the border of North Gyeongsang and North Chungcheong provinces, then along the border of eastern Gyeonggi and western Gangwon provinces through Aug. 10, and over Kangwon, western South Hamgyong, eastern South Pyongan, then Chagang provinces in North Korea through Aug. 11 before dissipating over Jilin Province in China early Aug. 12. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Aug. 7, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is maintaining purple (the highest level on a three-tier scale) landslide warnings across Tokushima Prefecture. Red storm, heavy rain, landslide, flood, and high wave warnings are in effect across parts of Okinawa Prefecture and the Amami and Osumi islands of Kagoshima Prefecture, as well as numerous yellow warnings across the rest of Japan. The JMA has advised residents to move into a sturdy building and stay away from windows indoors, be extremely vigilant against strong winds, and be careful of high waves. The heaviest rainfall totals of around 30 cm (12 inches) are likely in parts of the Amami Islands, Tokai region, and southern Kyushu through early Aug. 8. Heavy rainfall is forecast to persist over much of central and western Japan through Aug. 10.

Authorities have confirmed two fatalities in Okinawa Prefecture late Aug. 1; one in Ogimi Village due to a collapsed garage and another in Uruma City due to an accident that burnt down a house. The inclement weather has injured at least 88 people in Okinawa Prefecture. Authorities are maintaining evacuation orders for thousands of people across Mima City and other smaller towns and villages in Tokushima Prefecture, as well as for Amami City and other smaller towns and villages in Kagoshima Prefecture. At the height of the typhoon, hundreds of thousands of households were without power across Okinawa Prefecture and the Amami Islands; crews have mostly restored power supplies.

Airlines canceled hundreds of flights across Okinawa and Kagoshima prefectures Aug. 1-7. Some flights have resumed, but flight cancellations and delays are ongoing as of early Aug. 7. Japan Airlines (JL) has canceled all flights at Tanegashima (TNE), Yakushima (KUM), Kikai (KKX), Amami (ASJ), Tokunoshima (TKN), Okinoerabu (OKE), Yoron (RNJ), Kitadaito (KTD), Minamidaito (MMD) airports Aug. 7 and some flights across Kyushu Aug. 8. All Nippon Airways (NH) has canceled many flights at Naha Airport (OKA) Aug. 7. Further flight cancellations and delays are likely due to the adverse weather conditions. Reports indicate that cargo ships between mainland Japan and Okinawa Prefecture are scheduled to resume Aug. 8. JR Shikoku has suspended trains between Kochi and Kubokawa on the Dosan Line, between Susaki and Kubokawa, and between Kuwano and Awa-Kainan on the Mugi Line Aug. 7. JR Kyushu has suspended the Umisachi Yamasachi limited express train between Miyazaki and Nango, Kirishima limited express train between Miyazaki and Kagoshima-Chuo, and trains between Minamimiyazaki and Miyakonojo on the Nippo Line, and between Aoshima and Shibushi on the Nichinan Line Aug. 7.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Additional flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
China Meteorological Administration
Korea Meteorological Administration