Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Khanun tracking north-northwestward past the Osumi Islands, Japan, as of late Aug. 8 /update 14

Event

Tropical Storm Khanun is tracking north-northwestward in the Philippine Sea and is moving past the Osumi Islands, Japan, late Aug. 8. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 350 km (217 miles) south of Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it continues north-northwestward and tracks off the coast of western Kyushu through Aug. 9. Khanun is forecast to make a close approach to the west of the Koshikijima Islands early Aug. 9 and pass over the western end of Fukue Island in the Goto Islands, Nagasaki Prefecture, late Aug. 9. Khanun will then continue north-northwestward and make landfall near the border of South Korea's South Gyeongsang and South Jeolla provinces early Aug. 10. The storm is forecast to weaken as it tracks across North Jeolla, South Chungcheong, then Gyeonggi provinces, and Seoul Special City through Aug. 10, and will weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks over North Korea's North Hwanghae, South Pyongan, Pyongyang, North Pyongan, and Chagang provinces through Aug. 11. Khanun will likely dissipate over central Jilin Province after entering northeastern China Aug. 12. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Aug. 8, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued purple (the highest level on a three-tier scale) heavy rain and landslide warnings across parts of southern Kyushu Region and red heavy rain, landslide, flood, storm/gale, and high wave warnings for parts of southern Kyushu, northern Kyushu, and Shikoku regions. Yellow warnings for various weather phenomena have been issued across much of the rest of western and central Japan. The JMA has advised residents to move into a sturdy building and stay away from windows indoors, be extremely vigilant against strong winds, and be careful of high waves. The heaviest rainfall totals of around 40 cm (16 inches) are likely in southern Kyushu, and 30 cm (12 inches) are likely in parts of the Amami Islands and northern Kyushu through Aug. 9. Winds gusting up to 144 kph (89 kph) are expected in parts of western Japan, as well as rough seas generating waves up to 8 meters (26 feet).

Authorities have confirmed two fatalities in Okinawa Prefecture late Aug. 1; one in Ogimi Village due to a collapsed garage and another in Uruma City due to an accident that burnt down a house. The inclement weather has injured at least 88 people in Okinawa Prefecture. Minor damage has been reported in parts of Kagoshima Prefecture as of late Aug. 8. Authorities are maintaining evacuation orders for hundreds of thousands of people across parts of Kagoshima, Kumamoto, Miyazaki, and Okinawa prefectures; full details on areas under evacuation ae be found here. At the height of the typhoon, hundreds of thousands of households were without power across Okinawa Prefecture and the Amami Islands; crews have mostly restored power supplies.

Airlines canceled hundreds of flights across the Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu Aug. 1-8. Some flights have resumed, but flight cancellations and delays are ongoing as of early Aug. 8. Further flight cancellations and delays are likely due to the adverse weather conditions. Trains leaving Kagoshima-Chuo and outbound trains leaving Kumamoto on the Kyushu Shinkansen are suspended from the afternoon of Aug. 8. Authorities have warned that train services on the Sanyo Shinkansen may be suspended between Shin-Osaka and Hakata stations from late Aug. 9 through early Aug. 10. Officials have also suspended numerous other local trains across Kyushu.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Additional flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
China Meteorological Administration
Korea Meteorological Administration