Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Khanun tracking northwestward along the western coast of Kyushu, Japan, as of early Aug. 9 /update 15

Event

Tropical Storm Khanun is tracking northwestward in the Philippine Sea and is moving along the western coast of Kyushu, Japan, early Aug. 9. As of 12:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 248 km (154 miles) south of Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it continues north-northwestward and tracks off the coast of western Kyushu through Aug. 9. Khanun is forecast to make a close approach to the west of the Koshikijima Islands early Aug. 9 and to the west of the Goto Islands, Nagasaki Prefecture, late Aug. 9. Khanun will then continue north-northwestward and make landfall near the border of South Korea's South Gyeongsang and South Jeolla provinces early Aug. 10. The storm is forecast to weaken as it tracks across North Jeolla, South Chungcheong, then Gyeonggi provinces through Aug. 10, turning into a tropical depression as it tracks over North Korea's North Hwanghae, South Pyongan, Pyongyang, and North Pyongan provinces through Aug. 11. Khanun will likely dissipate over far northern North Pyongan Province early Aug. 12. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Aug. 9, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued purple (the highest level on a three-tier scale) heavy rain and landslide warnings across Kagoshima and Miyazaki prefectures and red heavy rain, landslide, flood, storm/gale, and high wave warnings for parts of the rest of Kyushu and Shikoku regions. Yellow warnings for various weather phenomena are in effect across much of the rest of western and central Japan. The JMA has advised residents to move into a sturdy building and stay away from windows indoors, be extremely vigilant against strong winds, and be careful of high waves. The heaviest rainfall totals of around 30 cm (12 inches) are likely in Kyushu and Shikoku through early Aug. 10. Winds gusting up to 144 kph (89 kph) are likely in parts of western Japan, as well as rough seas generating waves up to 8 meters (26 feet).

The Korea Meteorological Administration has issued heavy rain advisories (lower level on a two-tier scale) across South Gyeongsang, southeastern North Gyeongsang, and southern and eastern South Jeolla provinces and Busan and Ulsan metropolitan cities. Typhoon warnings and advisories are in place across southern South Korea.

Authorities have confirmed two fatalities in Okinawa Prefecture late Aug. 1. The inclement weather has injured at least 88 people in Okinawa Prefecture. Reports indicate minor damage in parts of Kagoshima Prefecture as of late Aug. 8. Authorities are maintaining evacuation orders for hundreds of thousands of people across parts of Kagoshima, Kumamoto, Miyazaki, Nagasaki, and Saga prefectures; full details on areas under evacuation can be found here. As of early Aug 9, more than 16,500 households in Kagoshima Prefecture and more than 1,000 households in Miyazaki Prefecture are without power.

Airlines canceled hundreds of flights across the Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu Aug. 1-9. Some flights have resumed, but flight cancellations and delays are ongoing as of early Aug. 9. Further flight cancellations and delays are likely due to the adverse weather conditions. Trains services on the Kyushu Shinkansen between Kumamoto and Kagoshima-Chuo stations and on the Nishikyushu Shinkansen between Takeo Onsen and Nagasaki stations are suspended Aug. 9. Authorities will suspend train services on the Sanyo Shinkansen on the outbound line departing Hiroshima Station from late Aug. 9 and between Hiroshima and Kokura stations early Aug. 10. Train services on the Sanyo Shinkansen between Kokura and Hakata stations will run reduced services early Aug. 10. Officials have also suspended numerous other local trains across Kyushu. Nishi-Nippon Railroad's express bus services connecting Fukuoka with Kagoshima, Shimabara, Nobeoka, Miyazaki, and Matsuyama are also suspended Aug. 9.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Additional flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
China Meteorological Administration
Korea Meteorological Administration