Yucatan Channel: Tropical Depression 10 forms near the Yucatan Channel and is largely stationary over the channel late Aug. 26

Event

Tropical Depression 10 has formed near the Yucatan Channel and is largely stationary over the channel late Aug. 26. As of 16:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 105 km (65 miles) northeast of Cozumel Island, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm as it remains in the Yucatan Channel between far southeastern Mexico and far western Cuba through Aug. 28. The storm is forecast to make sharp turns to track southwest, then southeastwards through early Aug. 28 before turning to track north-northeastwards and enter the Gulf of Mexico late Aug. 28. The system is likely to continue north-northeastwards and strengthen into a category 1 hurricane the afternoon of Aug. 29 before making landfall over the far eastern Florida Panhandle, US, early Aug. 30. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly into a tropical storm as it crosses southern and southeastern Georgia through the afternoon of Aug. 30 and into a tropical depression across southern and eastern South Carolina before dissipating over southern North Carolina early Aug. 31. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Aug. 26, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings:

• Tropical Storm Warning: Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel

• Tropical Storm Watch: Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth in Cuba

Authorities will likely issue new warnings and update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming hours and days.

The system is forecast to produce rainfall of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches), with locally higher amounts of 25 cm (10 inches), across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with locally higher amounts of 30 cm (12 inches) across western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and landslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is likely over portions of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, US Aug. 30-Sept. 1. Minor coastal flooding is forecast within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds.

Authorities in Florida have issued a state of emergency for 33 out of 67 counties Aug. 26 in advance of the storm.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Cuba Instituto de Meteorologia
Mexican National Meteorological Service (SMN)
US National Weather Service