Zimbabwe: General election on Aug. 23 /update 1

Event

Zimbabwe will hold its general election on Aug. 23 to choose its president, parliamentarians, and local government members. Incumbent President Emerson Mnangagwa of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) is running for a second consecutive mandate. His main adversary is Nelson Chamisa of the Citizen's Coalition for Change (CCC), who narrowly lost the 2018 election against Mnangagwa. To win the election, a candidate must receive over 50 percent of the vote, short of which, the two leading candidates will stand in a runoff election on Oct. 2. The political campaign period was marred by some political violence between opposing supporters, resulting in at least one casualty.

Increased tensions are likely nationwide on and following election day. Tensions will likely peak when results are announced. An increased security presence, as well as road traffic and business disruptions, are likely around political events and polling stations. Clashes between security forces, opposing rival activists, and other forms of political violence are likely. Previous elections in Zimbabwe have consistently featured many incidents of violence upon announcement of the results, which must be completed within five days of the election. Both Zanu-PF and the CCC have been implicated in incidents of violence in the past; while most violence is usually directed toward opposing supporters, it can occasionally affect bystanders and businesses. Violence could further escalate in the event of a legal challenge by either candidate following the results. Officials may impose additional restrictive measures, such as temporary curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions, to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest.

Context

In 2018, Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF narrowly beat Nelson Chamisa after the latter’s legal challenge was dismissed by the Electoral Commission. Opposition supporters staged a day of demonstrations in Harare, and after clashes with police, the military dispersed groups from the city center, allegedly firing live rounds on crowds. At least six people were killed in the violence. Police disrupted several other opposition gatherings following the violence. In 2023, Zanu-PF’s majority seems even further under threat amidst high-profile corruption scandals, struggling public utilities, and severe political infighting. Independent polling suggests that the election is too close to call, and could require a runoff election on Oct. 2.

Advice

Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence; avoid traveling in the vicinity of polling stations. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Refrain from wearing yellow clothing due to its association with the lead opposition party (CCC). Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Leave immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building if violence erupts. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.