Armenia, Azerbaijan: Heightened tensions likely in Armenian-Azerbaijani border zones, through late September

Event

Heightened tensions are likely in Armenian-Azerbaijani border zones, through late September. On Sept. 23, six Azerbaijani state workers are reported to have died in two separate incidents. Azerbaijani sources reported that two civilian employees of the state road agency died in a landmine blast near Taghavard, early morning Sept. 23, in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Around one hour later, local sources report that four employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan died in a second roadside explosion, also near Tagaverd. The incidents took place despite positive diplomatic developments in recent days; on Sept. 18, a humanitarian convoy entered NK following negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Military operations and localized escalations in tension could occur without warning anywhere in the disputed border zones. Spontaneous or planned demonstrations in response to such incidents cannot be ruled out in major cities elsewhere in Armenia or Azerbaijan. Authorities will probably move quickly to disperse any such gatherings that may materialize.

Advice

Avoid nonessential travel to areas near the NK line of contact or close to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border until the situation stabilizes. If operating in these areas, exercise extreme caution; carry proper identification at all times, and heed the instructions of local security personnel. Consider alternate methods for routing shipments in the vicinity of the conflict zone. Avoid all protests. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.