Armenia, Azerbaijan: Heightened tensions persist in Nagorno-Karabakh as of Sept. 26 /update 5

Event

Further outbreaks of fighting between Azerbaijani forces and ethnic Armenians are possible in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) through late September. Both sides agreed to cease hostilities from Sept. 20; however, Azerbaijani military operations are continuing and tensions remain elevated. As of Sept. 26, around 13,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the region for Armenia, according to local sources. Thousands more refugees are in transit, or are being harbored by Russian peacekeeping forces. The security situation was exacerbated Sept. 25 when a gas facility exploded near Stepanakert (Xankendi), causing at least 20 deaths and around 300 injuries.

Tensions will likely remain elevated in the coming days in NK, as well as along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, following the heavy fighting. Local sources reported at least 200 fatalities during the Azerbaijani "anti-terrorist operations", Sept. 19-20. Isolated armed clashes could occur with little warning throughout the disputed territory, as well as elsewhere along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

Spontaneous or planned demonstrations in response to the conflict cannot be ruled out in Armenia or Azerbaijan. In Yerevan, protesters have gathered daily since Sept. 19 to demand greater military engagement to defend ethnic Armenians' interests. The protests have led to scuffles with police, vandalism, and a number of injuries. Demonstrations are also likely in other major urban centers. Authorities in Azerbaijan will likely permit spontaneous celebratory gatherings in Baku and other major cities. Gatherings in both countries will likely prompt localized disruptions.

Context

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced on Sept. 19 that it had commenced "anti-terrorist operations" in NK after six Azerbaijanis were killed in separate land mine blasts near Taghavard earlier that day. On Sept. 20, ethnic Armenian forces agreed to Azerbaijan's key demands that they leave their combat positions and submit to disarmament. As of Sept. 26, negotiations are taking place between ethnic Armenian representatives and Azerbaijani officials in Yevlakh, approximately 100km (60 miles) north of Stepanakert.

These incidents took place despite positive diplomatic developments in previous days; on Sept. 18, a humanitarian convoy entered Karabakh following negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Tensions between Azerbaijan on one side, and ethnic Armenian de facto authorities in NK and Armenia on the other had been increasing in recent months as Azerbaijan maintained a blockade of the Lachin corridor that links Armenia with the disputed region. Azerbaijan had maintained that the road was used to smuggle arms and illicit goods into NK, and had been seeking additional concessions from Stepanakert and Yerevan before allowing the road to reopen.

Despite the ceasefire and the possible disarmament of ethnic Armenian forces, tensions will likely persist along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border; occasional exchanges of cross-border gunfire remain possible, particularly surrounding further peace talks between the two nations.

Advice

Avoid nonessential travel to areas near the Nagorno-Karabakh line of contact or close to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border until the situation stabilizes. If operating in these areas, exercise extreme caution, carry proper identification at all times, and heed the instructions of local security personnel. Consider alternate methods for routing shipments in the vicinity of the conflict zone. Avoid all protests. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.