Australia: Threat of bushfires likely to persist across much of the country through at least March 2024

Event

The threat of bushfires is likely to persist across much of Australia through at least March 2024, causing sporadic, localized disruptions to transport and business operations. Wildfires are a typical feature of the spring, summer, and early fall in the country, particularly after long dry spells or during spans of extremely high temperatures. Peak bushfire season varies depending on region, with bushfire activity most likely in spring and summer (September-February) across much of the country, with the exception of northern regions where activity peaks in winter and spring (June-November) and far southern regions where activity peaks in summer and autumn (December-May).

Following consecutive years of increased rainfall across much of the country due to La Nina climate conditions, the combination of drier and hotter conditions during current El Nino conditions and increased fuel loads due to the previous precipitation will likely lead to an increased fire risk in many areas over the upcoming bushfire season. Spring 2023 forecast models indicate an above-average fire potential across central and southern Northern Territory; central, eastern, southeastern, and southern Queensland; parts of northwestern, southeastern, and southwestern South Australia; central, eastern, and northern New South Wales; and parts of northwestern and southeastern Victoria. A continued heightened risk of fires is likely to persist across many areas through the summer and for some regions during the autumn.

Transport and Utilities
Bushfires can lead to evacuations, road closures, and ground transport diversions. Disruptions to arterial roads are possible. The scarcity of alternative routes in some areas means that significant transport disruptions are possible at times. While authorities are experienced in minimizing the potential impact, roads in remote regions are likely to be disrupted for longer periods than urban roads due to their relative inaccessibility. Authorities could close routes in bushfire complexes and evacuate communities due to fire activity and the needs of response operations. Traffic flows could also be disrupted during reentry periods after authorities lift evacuation orders.

Low visibility from smoke and possible ashfall could contribute to traffic delays and congestion and prompt short-notice flight disruptions if bushfires occur near airports. Railways can also experience occasional cancellation of services and long delays. Power outages are possible in places due to damaged infrastructure or intentional power cuts to prevent infrastructure damage or help prevent the spread of the fires.

Health
Smoke from wildfires is a mixture of gases and fine particles from burning trees, plants, and possibly building materials. Such smoke can hurt eyes, irritate the respiratory system, and worsen chronic heart and lung diseases. Smoke may also worsen symptoms for people who have pre-existing respiratory conditions - such as respiratory allergies, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Advice

Heed all evacuation orders. Seek updated information on road conditions if driving in the affected area; road closures and detours will cause increased congestion and delays. Individuals not under evacuation warnings should consider remaining inside well-ventilated, air-conditioned spaces to reduce exposure to smoke. Collect essential items - including identification and any important legal and travel documents - in a “go-bag” that can be easily accessed. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged power outages.

Resources

Australia FireWatch
Western Australia Emergency Warnings and Incidents
Australian Capital Territory Emergency Services
New South Wales Rural Fire Service
Northern Territory Fire Incidents
Queensland Rural Fire Service
South Australian Country Fire Service
Tasmania Fire Service
Victoria Emergency Warnings and Incidents